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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (10292)	11/6/2001 9:32:59 AM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

You have valid points and it's foolish to count on a bubble, but there is a heck of a lot of liquidity out there right now. I don't expect the mountain of cash on the sidelines to stay there much longer with interest rates going below inflation rates.

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (10292)	11/6/2001 11:14:12 AM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Respond to of 23153

KB, Quehubo, and JQP - Some very good posts on the market's approach toward valuations. I could go on about valuations, pointing out for instance that one popular semi stock would take you 41.5 years to recoup each dollar you invested - even with their bubble era net margin of 33% which isn't there anymore. But that doesn't seem to be the point. The real point is if the market will continue to ignore value as it has for 5+ years, or will return to sensibility. Both sides of the issue have valid points. On one hand is the large amount of liquidity flooding the system combined with a potent mix of investor ignorance/wishful thinking/greed. On the other hand there is the economy which is lousy and the avalanche of layoffs & debt that promise to squelch the rampant consumerism needed to keep a bubble inflated. I think most people know which side I'm on. I think you can only sell fantastically overvalued tulips to people for so long - until they realize they are just tulips. Sharp

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (10292)	11/6/2001 3:59:26 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

kb, Re: We won't have another speculative bubble like 1998-2000 for a generation; If history isn't repealed, you're absolutely correct about this. What I've found that causes these huge bursts or enthusiasm and subsequent panics are new technologies. 1810-Canal Companies, 1837-The First Railroad Bust, 1873-Second RR Bust, 1907-Electricity and The Trusts, 1929-Radio and Autos, 1969-Anything -tronics, 2000-The Internet..... We will have to find a new engine to get the speculative juices flowing, some new wonderful technological advance that everyone agrees is going to change the world. Then we can speculate and repeat the cycle. Something that's highly unlikely in this capital investment environment. My feeling is that all the money "on the sidelines" isn't enough to spark a true bull market. For that, we need a good story. -Ray