To: Susan G who wrote (3698 ) 1/4/2002 1:05:11 PM From: bobby is sleepless in seattle Respond to of 26752 One PC Maker Will Rule in 2002 By Lisa Gill, www.NewsFactor.com In the face of recent reports suggesting a disappointing 2002 IT spending rebound and a continued recession in the coming year, analysts agree that one computer maker is positioned to have a healthy comeback for 2002. Meanwhile, mergers, bloated budgets and overstocked shelves will continue to plague other companies. According to a recent Giga Information Group study, companies are expected to slash IT budgets by 15 percent or more in 2002. With IT spending overall for the coming year estimated not to exceed 7 percent compared to 2001, the figure stands in stark contrast to spending rates of as much as 20 percent in 1999 and 2000. These spending cuts, combined with waning consumer interest and limited consumer dollars, put IBM (NYSE: IBM - news), Compaq (NYSE: CPQ - news), Dell (Nasdaq: DELL - news), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HWP - news), Gateway (NYSE: GTW - news), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL - news), Sony and others in a situation of survival of the fittest. Which Will Thrive? With a fiercely competitive market on the horizon for at least the next 12 months as computer manufactures scramble to move machines out of warehouses, analysts believe that of all PC makers, Dell has the best shot at coming out on top of the heap. Ryan Jones, analyst for the Yankee Group, told NewsFactor Network that he believed Dell can weather the storm the best in the short term. "PC manufactures that have the greatest cost efficiencies will be able to emerge most quickly and remain profitable. Dell is in a good position to do that because of its mail order and Internet strategies," said Jones. Rob Enderle, Giga Information Group research fellow, told NewsFactor that he agreed. Because of Dell's internal structure, Enderle said, he expects the company to be able to sail through the recent economic downturn and fare well as the PC market begins to recover next year. "They're the ones that have the best command and control structure, so they can respond to threats more quickly than the others, as well as to opportunities," said Enderle. PC Struggles Efficiency and stability are two key issues for 2002, and at least two companies, Hewlett-Packard and Compaq, fighting to solidify their merger, stand to lose the most should the union not be completed. Peter Kastner, chief research officer for the Aberdeen Group, told NewsFactor that the measure of Dell's success will depend on whether the Hewlett-Packard and Compaq merger is completed or not -- and that the merger will also determine Compaq's fate. "If the merger does not go through, Compaq will have a lot of catching up to do in order to restore its brand at both the enterprise and the consumer levels," said Kastner. Giga's Enderle believed that neither Hewlett-Packard nor Compaq could recover in the market now, regardless of the outcome of the merger. "HP and Compaq are clearly at the greatest risk right now. Regardless of whether or not the merger goes through, they will face a fairly significant company recovery problem on top of any type of increases in the business structure," said Enderle. The Yankee Group's Jones said he expected a long road for Hewlett-Packard and Compaq in order to resolve the dirty laundry issues that have been aired in public, and compared the challenges they face to those presented by previous mergers. "Whether it's service providers merging like AT&T and Comcast, or EchoStar and DirectTV, when you focus on internal issues like that there's a good chance you can get burned on external issues like market share," noted Jones. Gateway's Test But Kastner of the Aberdeen Group pointed to Gateway as a company they will be watching closely throughout 2002. Citing drastically reduced or closed operations in Asia and Europe amid a worldwide PC decline as the reason the coming year will make or break the company, Kastner also pointed out that Gateway is presently the only PC manufacture going after the multiple home computer market. "Gateway is the only company so far that recognizes that home networks are rocket science to consumers and is offering a very attractive package of multiple machines and in-home services to make a wireless network work," said Kastner. But not all agree. Jones pointed to some now-closed Gateway Country Stores as evidence that Gateway's retail approach is not really relevant to consumers' needs. "Because PCs right now are a commodity product, you don't need to go in and touch and feel them. So I don't think the added expense of those stores makes sense right now," said Jones.