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To: techreports who wrote (9447)	11/7/2001 11:10:50 AM
From: BirdDog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10934

I rather my stocks go up because I find value where the market doesn't,... Actually, what we all want to do is: Buy a stock just before the market wakes up and finds value in it. :) As far a arguing the statement of "Gorillas are always undervalued". You need to take that in context. The author was arguing that the market never sees the forward growth prospects of a Gorilla. They ignore studying the technical strength of the company in it's product. The FA people don't bother to look past their hard rules of valuation. They never put a value on the company it deserves. On Warren Buffet. I believe he is hunting to buy right now. BirdDog@OhHomeOnTheRange.com

To: techreports who wrote (9447)	11/7/2001 3:08:35 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10934

OK then........ If you agree that Valuation Matters (there does seem to be a change of heart on the Gorilla thread on this issue), then....... Show me how you justify buying the stock at 17 as a LT hold. Show me where the upside is, from that point. One huge problem with using PEG, PE, P/S ratios today, is that I think a lot of recent data has to be thrown out (the recent past, and probably 2002 as well). The Bubble, in credit and overinvestment and stock valuations, started in late 1998. It's arguable that it really started in 1995. So data from that time can't be used. 2002 earnings and sales and margins are all being distorted by the exceptionally steep falloff in demand, which leaves many tech companies, even the highest-quality, oversized with no profits. So, that leaves me using pre-1998 (and maybe pre-1995) historical data, and 2003 earnings. There is a lot of guesswork here. I'm guessing that this recession is short, and is over by 2003. I'm guessing that NTAP's earnings will rebound quickly to the trendline, by 2003. That means current consensus estimates for 2003 will be going up. That's how I justify beginning to buy at 13. So far, that looks like a good move. So far. But I will hedge my bets, probably by selling in increments on the way up. Small and mid-caps, when forward earnings estimates are going up, get PEs higher than their growth rate. A PEG of 1.5 is reasonable. A PEG of 2 or above isn't, as a general rule. Except in Bubbles. I've posted my thoughts on QCOM on the unmoderated thread. I don't see much upside at current prices, either. I have 10% of my money in QCOM, the lot I bought at 40. The higher-priced lots are already gone, at a modest profit. I'm trying to decide whether to buy back, beginning at 45 or 40. More sell targets hit today (AMAT at 40), so my cash pile is steadily growing. Amazing, given their warning, that the stock is up.