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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (62524)	11/7/2001 7:03:38 AM
From: peter_luc	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 275872

Wanna_bmw, "I hate to say it, but K&M didn't predict an amazing quarter for AMD in Q3 when the Athlon was topping the charts, so I don't know why you still feel it's a valid indicator for any kind of market acceptance." During the last months I didn't report regularly about the KME bestseller lists any more. In fact, I only talked very rarely about them since April. I just didn't pay attention very much any more. Now it seems that this was a mistake because these lists have probably been a quite good indication for the DIY market in general (which is very important for AMD, much more than for Intel). As I already wrote in a former message, the lists showed a strong Q1, a weak April and May, a strong June, a rather strong July, a weak August and again a strong September with the TBird 1400 being the absolute mega-seller (always number 1 on the general bestseller list). October, however, was partially not very good again due to the death of the Athlon C 1400. Recently however, the situation seems to have improved; the Athlon XP seems to slowly take the place of the TBird 1400. I do not want to bother anyone with these lists. If anyone has better numbers (for example Compaq sales data for AMD computers) I would be very glad to get them. I just think that I could have saved a lot of money if I had paid more attention to these lists in spring. So this time I want to share all available information with the thread members, be it good news or bad news. Peter

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (62524)	11/7/2001 8:57:00 AM
From: Dan3	Respond to of 275872

Is the end in sight for Intel's long ride? Having ridden the Rambus bandwagon to a 10% to 15% drop in market share, and the elimination profitability, Intel looks set to do it again. Despite everything it could do and despite spending a fortune on subsidies and advertising, AMD's DDR standard has clearly triumphed over Intel's RDRAM standard. The next 12 months will see the beginning of the battle for the next generation of computer architectures - 64 bit systems. As with Rambus, Intel is first to market, and, as with Rambus, Intel's solution is obscure and expensive. AMD, once again, will be following Intel by about 6 months. Once again, AMD has extended the existing installed base, and kept costs low. As performance numbers begin to leak for DDR equipped P4 systems, it is clear that one DDR channel is as good as, or a little better than, two RDRAM channels - making it quite clear that it is latency and not bandwidth that is the constraint to performance as chip speeds increase. AMD's 64 bit solution has two key differences compared to Intel's: the first is the on-chip memory controller that cuts latency, just as using DDR cuts latency relative to RDRAM. The second is that it is fully performance compatible with the IBM-PC standard that has come to dominate the industry over the past 20 years. Intel's 64 bit solution maintains the old off chip memory controller, and requires software different from anything that has been used by the installed base - it is, like Rambus, an obscure platform. With its on chip memory controller, Hammer architecture chips won't need a northbridge and won't need the motherboard real estate that used to be used by all the traces needed to connect the CPU to the northbridge. Hammer systems will be very inexpensive to build, and fit in small cases - desktop, mobile, and rackmount. It is looking more and more like Intel could lose its franchise within 18 months as the industry moves to 64 bits.