To: limtex who wrote (108184 ) 11/7/2001 7:47:20 AM From: Lipko Respond to It's the morning after - for us in NYC we still have many imponderables before us, including a new mayor of doubtful stature and no political experience, with a City to rebuild, and tax system to balance - impossibly - confidence of the electorate to gather - kids to educate and teachers to placate - firefighters and police to rebuild - ethnic barriers to breakdown - an economy with its national questions significantly magnified for New York - and Q underperforming and guiding lower (the least of my real concerns). The disturbing point, as we have all been pointing out, is the Q's inability to deliver that explosive "next" quarter, which keeps getting pushed back, and now may be several quarters out. It seems to me that for all our bitching and moaning, Q is adopting a pretty conservative stance - amortizing its royalties, taking many significant write-offs, guiding conservatively and pricing only 4-8M units in China and none in India, slow uptake in NA, virtually none in SA, anything from GPS royalties?, BREW fees? increasing ASP's on color screens and sophisticated units (projecting average decline may be overly pessimistic), what for Japan and its gadgets once KDDI gets going, Korean gadgets beyond the 'phones, DoCoMo royalties?, anything in India? PDA's, notebooks, others - any at all in either FY or CY 2002?, and all the time real cash piling up at a time when - after another two Fed meetings - there will be nowhere with interest rates to go but up. And coming off the most dismal, unimaginable telecommunications year, reading tea leaves into the future with tech totally dead. Yeah - I want it now - hell, I wanted to keep 1/3/00 - who wouldn't. But Q is a far better company today, with far more promise, and the world will awaken from its current economic malaise - just not in my greedy time frame, and my retirement will have to be pushed back a few years. But after 40+ years of investing, with a few pretty bad periods in general, exaggerated by the NYC situations (remember mid '70's when the City was technically bankrupt and new Agency financing and draconian economic measures bailed us out?), so I guess I can survive a couple more SLIGHTLY disappointing Q quarters. PERHAPS! John
