Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (56177)	11/8/2001 9:50:31 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Cyclical rally on hold: Prices forecast to fall further as 'the global recession intensifies' Jason Chow Financial Post If investors are looking for signs of a cyclical stock rally to lead the economic turnaround, they won't find it in commodity prices. The Commodity Research Bureau's raw industrials commodities spot price index ended October at its lowest level since 1987. The CRB index, which represents 13 different products, fell to 214.4 at the end of October, down 7% since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Energy prices are not included in the index, but the picture isn't any brighter; crude oil dipped to US$20.02 a barrel in New York yesterday, down 28% since the attacks and at its lowest close in two years. Yesterday, Goldman Sachs produced more gloomy statistics. Of the 26 raw materials covered by its commodities index, only cocoa, orange juice, lean hogs, and gold have not fallen. Industrial metals, energy and agricultural products are each down more than 20% in the last 12 months. The leading losers included zinc, off 33%, and nickel, which fell 33.5%. While some fund managers have said the latest tumble shows signs of a potential bottom, there could be more trouble ahead, according to Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown strategist Ed Yardeni. Mr. Yardeni said the CRB index looks set to lose another 20% to retest the 1975 low of 171.5 as "the global recession intensifies during the winter months." While the strategist admitted share prices usually anticipate profits, he prescribed patience to his clients yesterday. There could be "one more shakeout for the economy and profits over the next six months that will present a good buying opportunity." While Mr. Yardeni is a cyclical bull-in-waiting, Robert Spector, senior economist and strategist for Merrill Lynch, is a cyclical bull-turned-bear who will continue to hibernate. In April of this year, Mr. Spector recommended to clients to load up on cyclical stocks, anticipating a liquidity push that would breathe life into both stocks and into demand for commodities. But the conditions are different today, the Toronto-based pundit said. He expects prices to continue to fall. And even if they were to bottom soon, he didn't expect much of a rebound because there hasn't been much global data to suggest an increase in demand. Mr. Spector added cyclical stocks have been trading based on the assumption of a strong rebound. "Even if I'm wrong about commodity prices, they've already priced in so much optimism already. You can't get any more bullish," he said. The TSE metal and mineral subindex is currently trading at a multiple of 51.4 times estimated earnings, according to Bloomberg News. Last year, the companies listed on the subindex lost $453.6-million. One reason cyclical stocks could yet get a boost is that other sectors are even more overvalued, said Jeffrey Applegate, equity strategist at Lehman Brothers. Some cyclical stocks are starting to look cheap compared with defensive sectors such as health care and consumer staples, he said yesterday. nationalpost.com

To: William H Huebl who wrote (56177)	11/8/2001 10:08:40 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

I do believe commodities should bottom before any sustainable (i.e., not "bear market") rally in stocks. Right now it appears we are shooting for 2000 on Nasdaq (200 DMA), then back down.

To: William H Huebl who wrote (56177)	11/8/2001 10:28:22 AM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

I personally think the Fed is a criminal, the way they handled the bubble and the way they handle the crisis. Quite a bit of manipulation here. The most blatant one is in their recent 30-year bond cancellation to prop up long-term rates and get more cash from the GSE. They will be more than happy if the bubble reinflates, with even greater structural distortions. Unfortunately, this mountain of old and new debt will later lead to total destruction of American economic system with possible political unrest.