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To: Lucretius who wrote (133325)	11/7/2001 3:14:23 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 436258

Here's some bullish fodder: www2.marketwatch.com Junk defaults said highest in a decade By Rachel Koning, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 3:03 PM ET Nov. 7, 2001 NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Speculative-grade bond defaults seen during October were the worst in 10 years, but the credit problems growing out of the recession of the early 1990s still reign as the most severe since the Great Depression, Moody's Investor Service said Wednesday. By the same token, the debt-rating firm expects the default rate on speculative or "junk" issues to rise in coming months before topping out in the early part of next year. The global speculative-grade bond default rate rose to 9.7 percent, up from 9 percent in September, according to Moody's. The July 1991 record stands at 13 percent. "The contraction of economic activity in the U.S. and reduced access to capital -- trends that were exacerbated by the September 11 attacks -- have helped push up the default rate for leveraged issuers," said David Hamilton, director of default research. "Moody's would like to emphasize that the economic aftershocks of September 11 introduced very few additional factors into the analysis," he said. "The trends affecting the direction and severity of corporate defaults were well in place before September 11." The rating agency said it expects the default rate will rise to 10 percent for all of 2001, up from 5.7 percent in 2000. Looking ahead, Moody's forecasts that the speculative-grade default rate will peak near 11 percent, likely in the first quarter of 2002. If achieved, this would be about one percentage point higher than the peak rate forecast before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.