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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (48661)	11/7/2001 4:10:13 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

c2, << Yesterday made me again think about the wisdom of Spinco. I'd just as soon have QClassic as a core LTB&H holding and sell or trade my Spinco shares. >> I really saw some wisdom in SpinCo. Obviously it was not the right time to spin SpinCo, but I happen to think that eventually we will see SpinCo spin. My plan was to hold SpinCo for a period of time and evaluate it as I would any other stock I held, but not necessarily hold long term. The chip side of the business certainly has some attendant risk. Suppose for instance that Nokia is successful with the 1x chip they have developed and they continue to grow cdma market share as they are doing right now. Suppose that Samsung, when the technology matures develops and uses their own 1x chip (as they had started to do with IS-95B), and MOT does likewise. 1x is going to be around for a loooooooooooooong time and this is not beyond the realm of possibility. Market share could go from 80+% to 50% overnight, in a market that is growing not growing super fast . Add to that the fact that Qualcomm is banking on a very aggressive 50% market share in GSM/WCDMA chips (where they will be in competition with some really heavy hitters). When they step into the GSM/WCDMA world the competitive advantage that they accrue by being the CDMA gorilla is sharply diminished. Thinking out loud and FWIW. << Provided, of course, that the younger Jacobs bunch doesn't think of it as a funding source for their hobbies. >> That reminds me of that story about Irwin in the room full of filing cabinets that came out of Cannes last year. - Eric -