THE REGION: Nice powers finish last
By Barry Rubin
(November 7) The United States is losing the current round in the war against terrorism. It is heartbreaking to watch and hard to believe these things are happening.
What's being done wrong could not be more obvious - yet hundreds of talking heads, instant experts, journalistic reports and op-ed pieces continue to insist that the emperor is wearing some very nice clothes indeed.
And, aside from some very determined, courageous exceptions, those who are critical are complaining in the opposite direction to what is needed.
Let's remember the context: More than 5,500 Americans are dead in the worst foreign attack on American soil since Pearl Harbor in 1941. And even Pearl Harbor was a military base, not a civilian office building.
The American people are outraged and ready for the toughest action. They have united in a genuine patriotic fervor unlike anything seen for many decades.
There is a Republican government in office, the party that's supposed to be the tough one. Society is traumatized; the economy is badly damaged.
And yet there is something deeply wrong with much of the policymaking and opinion-making elite. Blithely people keep insisting that everything has changed since September 11. Ridiculous. In fact, it is amazing how little has changed.
President George W. Bush and Secretary of State Colin Powell seem to live in fear that someone abroad will be afraid of them. They seem on the verge of hiring a team of high-priced, expensively dressed lawyers to sue Osama bin Laden. They seem to believe that America's greatest need is for a clever public relations' firm that will make the Arab and Muslim world love it.
Rather than persuade the world that the US is a superpower which is dangerous to betray and fatal to fight, they act as if they are trying to convince everyone that the US is a nice country. They talk as if the epitome of statecraft is to mistreat friends and appease enemies.
I would like to tell them this, and it shouldn't be so hard to figure out:
No matter what you do or say, the Arab masses are not going to love you. Egypt and Saudi Arabia will not pour out compliments in their state-controlled media.
After America betrayed the Kurds and Shi'ites who rose up against Saddam Hussein at President George Bush's request in 1991, who will stake their lives on American gratitude? If you were an Afghan, would you?
For 20 years we've heard American presidents threaten that terrorists will be hunted down and punished. In almost every case, those who have murdered Americans sleep well at night, year after year. Those who harbor them and pay them pensions need not worry either.
In light of this history and present performance, why should the Taliban cadre defect? Why should they be afraid? Is bin Laden trembling? Is Saddam Hussein trembling?
It is so painful to say it, but the truth is they are probably closer to laughing.
When Egyptian, Saudi, Syrian, or Iraqi leaders meet in their innermost chambers do they decry US bullying or snort in disbelief at American impotence?
Surely they say, "We can ignore their requests for help, attack them in our media, and still get them to give us benefits. America must be really weak."
Whenever these regimes want to control their masses they do so easily. If someone marched in the street and said, 'Down with Mubarak' - or Assad or Arafat or King Fahd - they would not hesitate to crush them, to denounce them, to discredit them.
No journalist or Islamic cleric who attacked another country without authorization to do so would keep his job. But if it is against America, they have nothing to lose and much to gain.
When Arab rulers wanted the US to protect them from Iran or Iraq, give them $2 billion aid a year or sell them arms, one heard little talk of grievances. The Saudis were happy to have US troops on their holy soil.
Only when the US wants something from them are their grievances overpowering, the voices of the masses allegedly too loud to ignore.
That is why the US had no difficulty assembling a coalition in 1991, when the regimes had such a strong incentive to save themselves, compared with 2001, when the US is asking for their help.
They are not afraid of bin Laden. They will use him to keep control at home. The battle isn't against us, they argue, but against America. Our corruption, incompetence, arrogance or mismanagement is unimportant. America is the real problem.
LET'S TALK straight: There are too many dead, orphaned and widowed Americans to play games. Except for European allies and perhaps two Gulf sheikdoms, there is no coalition. To project weakness will not win this confrontation.
Time is not on America's side. And the Bush administration's strategy is deeply flawed.
Much of what the US political and intellectual leadership needs to know is the stuff presented in the first week of any good international relations course: Powers remain strong if they can use their strength effectively. One must identify enemies and ally with reliable friends.
Your enemies must suffer your wrath, and those sitting on the fence must fear it. The ability to use force effectively breeds credibility; matching your words with deeds produces deterrence. And nice superpowers finish last.
Taking the path of least resistance and least apparent risk has led to a remarkable strategy. Who is the US depending on for victory over the Afghan government?
First, on Pakistan, an unreliable and corrupt military dictatorship, creator and patron of the Taliban and sponsor of terrorism against India. Second, on the Northern Alliance, an organization that for discipline and military effectiveness makes the most backward Third World armies look good.
The only possible argument in favor of this strategy is that the Taliban will rush to surrender out of fear or seek larger subsidies.
This approach greatly underestimates the intelligence of the Taliban. At best, they might say: Let's wait and see if there is any danger in fighting on against America. So far, it doesn't seem so tough. Meanwhile, winter is coming on hard.
With every passing day, bin Laden's claim that America is a paper tiger looks better. With every day there is more of a temptation for radical Islamists to follow his example.
The American people do not deserve this bumbling misleadership. The world cannot afford it.
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