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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StanX Long who wrote (55197)	11/8/2001 8:51:40 AM
From: John Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Stan, Thanks for posting that. I realize that valuations look high now for stocks, but I find it interesting that so many people seem to think it is so easy to predict the market. Some on this thread here have been doing an incredibly good job of it, but I still think most opinions on it are likely to be wrong. If it were just a matter of valuations, then the Nasdaq would never have gone through 3,000, 4,000, or 5,000 a few years ago. One argument seems to be that once a decline like this one starts, it has to unwind all the way. But I wonder if that logic really holds up over time. I find it interesting that the world's greatest investor, Buffet, and also guys like Lynch, claim no ability for predicting the market. Having said all that, I honestly think Nasdaq 1,300 or so is quite possible. (Interesting that he says 1315 though - perhaps he is using "vibration theory".) I also think the Nasdaq could go below 1,000 in the next year. However, longer term, I think the Naz is going up, and I think the chances are we have seen the lows. I myself will try to trade more around these peaks and dips, but I truly believe that the gloom and doom argument is getting long in the tooth here at this point in time. FWIW, I think the aftermath of Sept 11 is such that the world is going to become a better place. I think the USA is likely to come out of this world-war on terrorism looking pretty good. I think the USA will, even more than before, be the place where people want to put their money. I see an upside to all this, a combination of the "sleeping giant" theory, and the argument that this event causes us to get the V-bottom that we would not have otherwise. I think the world gets safer as a result of Sept 11, and that at least can't be a bad thing. Disclaimer: I tend to be too optimistic about tech stocks in general - still amazed by the power of the internet and the prospect of what technology can do for us all going forward. I also don't have a very good track record at predicting the market, well for the last year at least. John