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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (55205)	11/8/2001 10:42:29 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

re: my 100% commitment to stocks: On October 5, I was on 40% margin (= 140% commitment). As of today, I am 13% cash (= 87% commitment). My commitment to stocks is waning by the day. I posted the article because it brings up interesting ideas. I disagree with the U.S. now- Japan 1990s analogy, but I think it is useful to watch the warning signs. For now, I'm operating on the assumption that we are going to have a garden-variety recession, worse than 1990 but better than 1973, and it will be over by 2003, and we are going to see a partial re-inflation of the bubble. However..........if we get out to June 2002 (18 months after the Fed started cutting rates), and Fed Funds are at 1%, and housing prices have collapsed, and there are no signs of a rebound in consumer spending, then I'm going to start taking very seriously the "20-year Secular Bear Market" scenario. I don't believe it yet, but it is worthwhile paying attention to the warning signs.