Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shack who wrote (20104)	11/8/2001 12:07:14 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

Yup, we've been calling tops like clowns. I was wrong and I freely admit it.

To: Shack who wrote (20104)	11/8/2001 12:13:35 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

This rally might pull back a litlle but we go into Jan strong. 1)there is to much sceptecscim of the rally. Until People are really comfy here we rally. VIX still stuborn and bearly budging down. When it gets to 24 it will be time to call tops 2)seasonality and High cash positions will temporarily buoy market 3)Lots of puts bought in OCT 4)lots of shorts need toi cover 5)Mass press to bearish 6)Stimulus and liquidity will create Mini bubble here. The next time down will be swift and deadly IMHO

To: Shack who wrote (20104)	11/8/2001 12:13:41 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Take a look at the VIX daily off the top. Looks like a bullish wedge that wants to break to the upside eventually.

To: Shack who wrote (20104)	11/8/2001 1:21:47 PM
From: bcrafty	Respond to of 209892

Shack, pass the bananas I think many of us have been conditioned to looking for and getting pullbacks, as we have successfully done in the past this year. But this time it seems like the big boys want to stay long and clear out quite a few of the bears and are having a successful time doing so (even though Rydex comparisons might not indicate as such) The liquidity injections have certainly helped fuel this rally too, but at this stage short covering by long time bears is probably going to fuel the next leg, IMO. On the other hand, I can't say that I really buy the statement by fund managers when they say that they're buying for a recovery six months away. While they might have an argument for some industries, I think more will take a lot longer, probably until 2003 at least. For example I don't think any of the telcos are going to increase their capex anytime soon that would lead to a significant recovery for the optical networkers. How could we have seen 9/21 as a low? I don't think we could have, as we knew a slew of bad earnings reports were going to come in soon and possibly lead to a new low. How could we have known that the massive liquidity injections would have come as they did? We couldn't, and while we knew the PPT would do some kind of job on the market we had no idea that the injections and their effect would continue this long. Many of us, including me, have been burned going long in bear markets and we had become conditioned to waiting for the next break to short, and so we have been doing the same lately. Irrespective of E-wave though, it now looks like we're in a buy the dips scenario rather than a short the spikes scenario as the safer way to trade. As for what lies ahead I notice that the 10 and 20 day emas have now crossed the 50 on the daily COMP, and that is usually a bullish signal in the longer timeframes. A friend of mine calls that crossover "the silver cross." stockcharts.com[l,a]daclyymy[pc50!c20!b10][vc60][iLh8,3!La12,26,9!Lp14,3,3]