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Strategies & Market Trends : The Covered Calls for Dummies Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Uncle Frank who wrote (2991)11/8/2001 2:46:30 PM
From: Andrew N. Cothran  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 5205
 
Uncle Frank:

The NASDAQ options board open interest contracts for QCOM shows the following:

Nov 60's 22,325
Nov 55's 23,691
Nov 50's 13,799

Dec 60's 10,920
Dec 55's 12.797
Dec 50's 2,875

Note that in both the Nov's and the Dec's contracts, the 55's has the largest open interest contracts. Nov is especially noteworthy. The 6o's look really safe on the short side. That is why the premium is not worth much and traders tend to ignore it.

My best guess at this time is that the powers that be will move the stock closer to the Nov 55's strike price between now and Nov 16 in order to wipe out the longs looking for a profit. This is what my so-called 'pattern recognition program' indicates as this is the way it has worked so often in the past.

Once the Novembers are out of the way, watch the open interest in the December 55's build rapidly, assuming that QCOM will remain in the current trading range. Of course, if QCOM moves into the high fifties low sixties, then the 60 strike will get the most attention.

Conclusion: I think it is still safe to assume that the November and the December 55's will expire nearly worthless. I see nothing in the offing that would cause renewed buying in the stock sufficient to carry it much beyond where it has traded for the past two days.

But my opinion is just that. It is my opinion. And my opinion causes me to sit tight with my short positions in both the Nov 55's and the Dec 55's for now.

For what it is worth....