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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Engel who wrote (62987)	11/8/2001 2:30:22 PM
From: combjelly	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

"Dan3 claims AMD will ship 25 million per quarter in EARLY 2003. That will be ONE HELLUVA RAMP RATE !!!!!" Ignoring, of course, that the ClawHammer will be shipping earlier than the SledgeHammer. Even so, 25 million a quarter in early 2003 is a bit of a stretch.

To: Paul Engel who wrote (62987)	11/8/2001 3:19:47 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 275872

Engel wrote -> AMD will ship 25 million per quarter in EARLY 2003 Paul, your reading comprehension is dwarfed by that of the average gerbil. I posted that AMD would have shipped 10's of millions by early 2003 - to give a minimum installed base of 20 million+. If they ship (combined Clawhammer, SledgeHammer, CMP Hammer) 1 million 2002 Q3, 3 million 2002 Q4, 6 million 2003 Q1, and 9 million 2003 Q2, they'll just make before mid 2003 (ever so slightly early 2003). Given that they have stated that the expected run rate from Dresden would be 12.5 million CPUs per quarte by the end of this year (50 millioin per year), those numbers are doable. How many IA-64 systems will have been sold when the 20 millionth X86-64 system is sold? What will constiture the installed base for 64 bit processors at the point in 2003 that there are enough out there to consider it an "installed base?" The most likely answer is that Intel will have, at best, a few million seats for IA-64 when AMD has 20 million seats for X86-64. At which point IA-64 fades away to being a niche processor for some low volume servers.