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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (4328)	11/8/2001 8:04:02 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

NV, did you take some profits that were offered today? Actually, I did sell some more today but but continue to still hold many longs--nothing that really keeps me awake at night--going from aggressively long to just long the market. If you look at that, and the fact that most traders respect T/A, you have to respect that what is theory will indeed become fact when the theory becomes compelling enough to get people to act on it and program it in their systems. I had so much difficulty with TA over the past 12 to 18 months because prior to that, no one really cared..it used to be all momentum. I do have new respect for it because it was the traders that dictated the market during the bear market. The turning point was when the momentum finally ran out---ie..everyone made it into the market by March 2000 and therefore we had our bear market. Now with interest rates so low and money money funds still hitting record levels along with a significant drop in the bonds yields, does it not look like the turning point---ie. when the strategies that have worked so well for a 1 1/2 years finally fail. A part of that would be for the re-test to not happen. Re-test of the low is a fundamental element normally needed for closure of a bear market. If you want your bull, you need a re-test no sooner than 1-month after the Sept. 21 low. We don't have it yet. That I do not get. Without increases in short term rates OR a significant pick up in inflation OR some external event--- I don't see how it would happen in the near term. I am not ruling it out, just questioning how it could happen in the coming few months. This is no doubt going to be an interesting few months. Can't wait to see how it unfolds.