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Strategies & Market Trends : Trend Setters and Range Riders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Susan G who wrote (3828)	11/8/2001 9:27:21 PM
From: Susan G	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26752

Updated: 09-Nov-01 General Commentary In the weeks immediately following the terrorist attacks of 9/11, the number of NYSE stocks trading above their long-term moving averages fell to about 11%... Historically, that's a signal that the selling is washed out, and that the indices are poised for a recovery... Sure enough, the market has embarked on a sizable rally over the past six weeks. Though techs have helped to pace the move, we find it interesting that many of the bellwether tech issues are just now bumping up against their long-term moving averages... Take Cisco (CSCO) for example... The stock recently broke above its 150-day moving average for the first time in over a year, and is now testing its 200-day moving average... Sun Microsystems (SUNW) rallied up to its 150-day moving average today and began to slip a bit... Oracle (ORCL) broke above its 150-day moving average earlier this month, and has moved to within a couple points of its 200-day moving average... EMC Corp. (EMC), is just now approaching its 100-day moving average, a ceiling which has provided stubborn resistance since late last year. For the better part of a year, what recovery rallies we have seen have tended to flame out when the leadership names approached their long-term moving averages... We are at that point right now... Consequently, one of two things will occur... A) the tech sector will begin to roll over, or B) more and more stocks will make decisive moves above their long-term moving averages, indicating that the bear market is over... In light of the soft economic conditions and the lack of any earnings visibility over the next six months, Briefing.com maintains that "a" is the more likely scenario... However, we will continue to monitor this situation closely for signs that we're wrong. Robert Walberg