Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Trader who wrote (55275)	11/9/2001 12:49:57 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

John, As of yesterday's close, I was up to 24% cash. If the market turns down, I would start buying in widely-spaced increments (with AMAT, starting at 35), planning on using up my cash by the time the Nas retests recent lows (1400), and being back to 40% margin only if the Nas hits 1000. At today's levels, after a 56% runup in the SOX, I think the downside risk is at least as big as any potential upside. Market sentiment now, is the same as at the tops of the January and May rallies, pricing in a sharp upturn in fundamentals 6 months out. The reason I could take advantage of the September panic selling, was because of what I'd done in the prior rallies all year (selling them). If I'd gone into 9/11 on margin, all I would have been able to do would be to grimly hang on, and hope I avoided a margin call. I didn't see 9/11 coming. I didn't time that, you can't. What I saw, in May and June, was a market priced for the most optimistic possible year-forward scenario.