To: GUSTAVE JAEGER who wrote (8282 ) 11/9/2001 8:40:41 PM From: goldsnow Respond to of 23908 Would be intresting to watch an unfolding anti-arab Caspian oil coalition....No doubt "oil-gun" diplomacy and International Relations US/Russia/Iran/Turkey would dominate this decade...Arabs can only lose or lose big in the unfolding events that would hit them financially and politically with widening oil-glut...biu.ac.il Iran's major regional conflict is with Azerbaijan over differences in the ownership of Caspian oil and on projected oil and gas pipeline routes from the Caspian basin to Western oil consumers. The cheapest pipeline route lies across Iranian territory but, under U.S. pressure, preference has been given to the Western "Baku-Cyhan" route through Turkey. These issues, though, have not been finally decided. The possibility of a Southern Azerbaijan issue becoming an international problem should be taken very seriously. Iran's northwestern province bordering on Azerbaijan is populated mostly by Azeri Turks identical to those across the frontier. There have been semi-nationalist movements in the province during past decades and some of the Iranian Azeris seek unification with Azerbaijan. Iran and Azerbaijan have normal relations and are in continuous dialogue. The Azerbaijani government discourages pan-Azeri nationalism. Still, a heightening of this issue could cause considerable friction some day. (5) As a result of Iran's interests and policies, Armenia sees Tehran as another power that can counter-balance Turkey's activity in the region. There are no territorial issues between Iran and Armenia, and religious questions play no role in disrupting relations between the Islamic Republic and Christian Armenia. For Iran, Armenia blocks Turkish influence along Iranian northern and western borders and also in Central Asia. In contrast, Turkish interests in the South Caucasus directly collide with Russian and Iranian interests, a factor that also affects Turkey's relations with each of the South Caucasian states. Turkey's relations with Georgia and Azerbaijan may be defined as a strategic partnership, since they have a common interest in limiting Russian and Iranian influence.