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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hugh thorne who wrote (5007)	11/9/2001 7:28:09 PM
From: Jon Koplik	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Re : Michael Belkin's comments (last two paragraphs of your post) (and, reproduced here ... Still, some folks keep singing the blues. Michael Belkin, president of Belkin Ltd., a Seattle firm that uses computer models to forecast financial-market trends, notes that the business cycle usually produces mild downturns roughly every four years but that Fed liquidity injections forestalled downturns in 1994 and 1998, creating a tech bubble, overinvestment in housing and unrealistic investor expectations. "The problem now is we have three recessions worth of mal-investment to work though," says Mr. Belkin. "So, don't be surprised if lower rates can't quickly restore economic vitality." ********************** For what it is worth -- I heard Michael Belkin talking to Ron Insana on CNBC a few times (between about 6 months ago and 18 months ago, I think). I thought he (Michael Belkin) was one of the most intelligent commentators on the economy and financial markets that I had ever heard (in my more than 20 years of following financial markets). I will always listen to what he has to say ... Jon.