To: BubbaFred who wrote (41502 ) 11/9/2001 8:51:35 PM From: IQBAL LATIF Respond to of 50167 The road map after this fall..a bloody blow to the Talibans..To hold Mazar-i-Sharif at all costs, the Taliban had their second largest concentration after Kabul (about 10,000-12,000 hardened troops), mainly Uzbeks and Tajiks but with 1,000-1,500 each of Pashtun and Arabs. Since Uzbeks hate being led by Pashtuns, the Taliban commanders were mainly of Uzbek and Tajik, their morale stiffened by well trained and motivated Arab fighters. Osama bin Laden may be was not physically present but former Soveit paratrooper Uzbek Juma Namangani (hailing from where Babar is buried in Ferghana valley in Uzbekistan) coordinated with the local commanders. These are troops in the open running towards Kabul, wil they make it I doubt, they will be probably decimated. Unlike the ragtags parading daily in new gladrags north of Kabul, the Northern Alliance’s best military commanders and troops were arrayed against Mazar-i-Sharif. From the northwest and west (Doulatabad and Chantal), mercenary Gen Rashid Dostum, long-time ruler of Mazar entered the city. Dostum remained allied to the Soviets during the entire length of the Afghan War but shifted alliances to Najibullah when they Soviets left, supporting him with a large contingent of his Jumbish Militia in Kabul. His troopers misbehaved badly, indulging in widespread rape and pillage. Before Najibullah fell, he conveniently switched sides to Ahmad Shah Masood so that despite being a Tajik and in minority, Masood became the power behind the throne in Afghanistan’s interim government. Dostum soon fell out with Masood, maintaining an uneasy alliance from the safety of his Mazar stronghold. His luck and timing in crossing over to the winner lost out when the Taliban spurned him for his double-dealing No 2, Gen Malek. Even then Uzbek Dostum still evokes deep ethnic loyalties despite his horrific baggage. Unlike the other Afghan races, Uzbeks are not divided along sub-tribes. Dostum has today only a shadow (1000-1200 troops) of the well-trained force he once commanded. Driving north from his base at Yakaolong in Bamiyan Province, Ustad Mahikak, who has strong long-time support from Iran, has been attacking Ap Kupruk with some success. Ap Kupruk has changed hands a couple of times. Spearheaded by tanks, and helped by Ustad Atta Mohammad’s Tajiks, Mahikak’s Hazaras drove the Taliban out last Saturday but were driven out 24 hours later. Taking control again last tuesday, the alliance taking of Mazar will open Ustad Mahikak, who has strong long-time support from Iran, taking up Ap Kupruk . So far the Taliban have kept the road to Herat open despite ex-Governor Herat Ismail Khan’s threatening presence west of Herat. The fall of Mazar and Ap Kupruk now will threaten this road. Immediately North of Termez are assembled the best part of two US Mountain Brigades. Possibly the safest area for committing ground troops is the flat desert land between Termez and Mazar-i-Sharif. With fall of Mazar an armoured push towards Mazar on the Termez axis could happen, with ground attack aircraft and AC-130s clearing evrything in the way. from reports today....