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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (3794)	11/9/2001 8:30:51 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Where to gold? A look at lease rates & COTs Commercials booked another moderate increase in short vs long positions while specs did the opposite. cftc.gov COTs have some predictive value. But only with qualifications and NOT as short term tool. So no one week is all that significant. The 2 things I do pay attention are: The overall net position of commercials and speculators. That remains bearish with the commercials holding a significant net short position while speculators continue significantly long. And the trend of of the numbers in recent weeks. And what we've seen for the past 3 reports is continuing slow erosion toward more bearish readings. Beyond COTs I've long considered lease rates very important and have posted about that several time in recent months. The very low lease rates (which have showed only a brief upward spike in recent weeks) are consistent with the eroding prices we've been seeing in the precious yellow. In light of all this, moderately reduced positions today in NEM, KGC and KRL. Until I see: 1. Higher lease rates that are more than a one or two day head fake AND 2. More than a one week head fake in the right direction for COT numbers. Am going to hold only moderate size core positions in the golds. Been entirely out of the silvers for months. And so far, do think I've missed anything. Not trying to tangle with Kaplan fans about his recent favorable reads on golds direction. Just follow my own work exclusively, win or lose. When it tells me to get aggressive, I'll move. Isopatch