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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jetcityrandy who wrote (79696)	11/9/2001 9:21:12 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi Randy R. Felt; The PriceWatch figures are for 256MB. I've been generating them for so long that when I saw that big gap I had to search around for a while to make sure that I hadn't accidentally slipped a factor of two. PriceWatch: pricewatch.com 256MB PC133: pricewatch.com 256MB PC2100: pricewatch.com 256MB PC800: (Sometimes some of these are PC600 or PC700) pricewatch.com I chose 256MB because I intended on keeping the data going for a year, and I knew that the 128MB were likely to get too cheap over that time. (Little did I know how cheap and how fast that would happen.) The funny thing is that when I started this price series the Rambus morons gave me all kinds of grief for using 256MB modules instead of 128MB or even 64MB (See, for example, #reply-15728572 #reply-15736027 #reply-15736173 . And where is The Prophet anyway? It was my bet with him that DDR would get cheap and RDRAM wouldn't, as compared in ratio to SDRAM, that started the whole thing. Jdaasoc, on the other hand, surrendered like a man.) The 512MB series ... The 512MB figures are obtained by either the lowest prices on pricewatch, or what is obtained by searching for, for instance, "512MB DDR registered". I started that series after Jdaasoc repeatedly begged me to because he (suffered delusions and repeatedly) begged me to start tracking registered prices. He was convinced that RDRAM would be cheaper than registered DDR SDRAM (as it was at the time I started the series) and that RDRAM would therefore win significant server business. Here's how that series started, LOL!!! Jdaasoc, June 27, 2001 "carl: For such a loser that you keep calling me, I am still 100% right about so far about accepted usage of registered DDR memory and you are wrong again. ... I just do know how you keep up the crap about unbuffered DDR being used in PC's if when memory priced get back to normal and Intel is above 2 GHz in CPU clock speed. Something tells me that you will repsond with insults since I feel you haven't kicked your dog enough today. Please stop quoting unbeffered PC1600 and PC2100 DDR memory and quote the registered stuff since that is what is going to see first light of day by leading US industry players like AMD 762MP, Server works and Intel DDR chipset offerings." #reply-16005233 Bilow's sarcastic reply demonstrating that industry attention is firmly directed towards unregistered DDR SDRAM: #reply-16008910 Jdaasoc, June 28, 2001 (in reply, LOL!!!) "carl: You are some piece of work you smug bastard. AMD762MP chipset, INTEL upcoming chipset for servers and SERVERWORKS DDR products only use registered DDR memory Just quote the dam registered memory asshole john " #reply-16009235 Bilow, June 28, 2001 (in reply) "None of those chipsets are designed for mainstream desktop usage, they're very high end stuff (like servers and very high end workstations). I believe that mainstream (and value) computers use more memory than high end systems, and that the prices of memory used by desktop computers is therefore more important. In addition, it is a common observation that servers tend to use trailing, not leading, technology. So for first indication of the takeover of the mainstream memory technology, I will use unbuffered DDR. If you want to chart registered memory pricing, go ahead. I'm not stopping you. It's free, for God's sake. What's preventing you from generating the data??? The fact is that you just don't like to have to see DDR taking over the market, so you'd rather the data be more pleasant for Rambus. ..." #reply-16009601 Jdaasoc finally got me to understand why it was that he wasn't interested in the mainstream memory type: Jdaasoc, June 28, 2001 "carl: RDRAM is destined for hi end desktop and low end servers systems. Registered SDRAM was used primarily before the 840/850 chipsets for same markets hi end desktops (those with more than 512MB DRAM) and servers. Those two memories destined to compete on the upper end of performance chart are RDRAM (under 2GB memory) and registered DDR (over 2GB memory). Unbuffered DDR and SDRAM are still in a battle for the under $1,500 market IMO. I really don't care about the fact that this "value segment" may comprise 50-60 or even 70% of the PC marketplace. PS I expect 845 SDRAM chipset solutions to be widely available within next 4 weeks. Take it to the bank." #reply-16009736 I eventually relented and added the registered pricing, but insisted that since registered DDR modules were for large memory sizes only, I'd do the quotes for 512MB instead of some ridiculous size like the 64MB that Jdaasoc had asked me to do. As expected, even registered DDR soon became cheaper than RDRAM, and Jdaasoc has left me alone pretty much ever since. *The Spot pricing series* I added the spot pricing series because I was interested in the pricing of the individual chips. I figured that they would lead the pricing of modules somewhat, but the lead, if any, is very little. But I'm fairly sure that DDR DIMM pricing won't reach SDRAM DIMM pricing until after DDR chip pricing reaches SDRAM chip pricing, so I've included it. I used to update the 256MB data series daily, but with the thread dying (mostly due to lack of investor interest), I've chopped it back to Fridays. If I go off on vacation I'll try to remember to update it before I leave. The other two series were mostly updated less often than daily all along. -- Carl P.S. That's probably more than you wanted to know about these series. The 256MB will end when DDR gets to within 10% of SDRAM, and I'll probably kill the others at that the same time. By that time it will likely be clear even to the latest crop of Rambus morons that RDRAM is dead, dead, dead, and they'll be praying for either a lawsuit miracle or believing the long-term lies of Rambus management instead of the past ones. The past lies of Rambus (and Samsung) management were that RDRAM would take over 50% of the market in 2001. Obviously they were a bit optimistic about that one: samsungelectronics.com