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To: Philip W. Dunton, Jr who wrote (3503)	11/10/2001 6:35:06 PM
From: SemiBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3661

"Buyouts are more likely at the top of the cycle." Buyouts usually occur when any of the following occurs: cash close to drying up, consolidation can eliminate reduncies and increase margins, competitive advantage provided during the next upcycle, or meet capacity demands. Absent the later, none of the other scenarios typically occur during top of the cycle unless the acquiror is living on a stock price bubble, the acquiree is a value play for some odd reason and/or its management clueless. If you track the semi-equip sector, you will note the majority of acquisitions have mostly taken place during the pause in the cycle we are currently in.

To: Philip W. Dunton, Jr who wrote (3503)	11/10/2001 6:38:09 PM
From: SemiBull	Respond to of 3661

"Buyouts are more likely at the top of the cycle." Buyouts usually occur when any of the following occurs: cash close to drying up, consolidation can eliminate reduncies and increase margins, competitive advantage provided during the next upcycle, or meet capacity demands. Absent the later, none of the other scenarios typically occur during top of the cycle unless the acquiror is living on a stock price bubble, the acquiree is a value play for some odd reason and/or its management clueless. If you track the semi-equip sector, you will note the majority of acquisitions have mostly taken place during the pause in the cycle we are currently in.