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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (82395)	11/10/2001 5:43:40 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

bobby, thanks. Going to take another crash course in understanding options indicators a little more in preparation for next week. I just sense that business conditions are getting better so a selloff in the market looks unlikely--and we should get more evidence of that as many technology companies make comments--IBM analyst meeting; AMAT, HWP, DELL earnings--and the annual Comdex show. After all, we are just near pre-September 11 levels. That was an external event that caused drops in the Nasdaq. I would note that prior to that date, the P/C had been high for several days and the market was looking like it would turn around from there. That is why I tend to look at the pre-September 11 levels and not just the fact that we rallied so much off of the September lows. On a fundmental basis, technology in particular should be doing better given much lower interest rates and spending stimulas on the way. That explains why the market refused to drop late last week when so many predicted it...and so many expected it. There is no point selling stocks with PE of even 25, given that the yields on short term rates is just so low---and money market funds just hit another record level this week! The post attack drop that put the markets at lower levels will probably prevent any correction on the market from these levels combined with the U-turn in fundamentals. Too many factors are setting up this market for a major move higher near term. At least I am confident about it. Looks better than even early April did. I think it continues higher this coming week into options expiration. I view the current period as a start of a new bull market OR least a very big rally. In addition, the reductions in travel spending is going to find its way into other areas such as buying computers and other electronic gadgets and various other types of items. That is my optimistic or bullish outlook on the markets. jmho.

To: bobby beara who wrote (82395)	11/11/2001 8:02:46 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 99985

Here is some commentary on the options last week including a good summary. Seems to suggest the options activity is neutral. The index p/c was pretty high on Friday as seen in the summary. Probably comes down to whether the market is still a Bear or about to make turn...I am betting on a continuing rally this week. If there is a rally, it could be huge by the end of the week....if expiration comes into play. I am also about to look at some of the sources you suggested. biz.yahoo.com ---------------------- this also caught my attention: Surveys of newsletter writers showed a drop in bullish sentiment in the latest week. Investor's Intelligence reports that financial advisors who are bullish on the market fell to 41.7% from 43.3% two weeks ago and the bearish advisors increased to 33.7% from 32%. Meanwhile, retail investors, measured by the American Association of Individual Investors' [AAII] latest poll showed a sharp drop in bullish sentiment, from 55.9% to 33.9%. Bearish sentiment surged to 35.6% from 17.7% two weeks ago. Finally, Market Vane reports that 35% of those surveyed are bullish compared to 37% in the prior week. Overall, then, there was a sharp drop in bullish sentiment reflected in all of the latest sentiment polls.