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To: sun-tzu who wrote (133863)	11/10/2001 4:04:16 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

1) CRB I think the feeling is that we get at least a corrective bounce soon. It's Shack who is following the CRB beat, so you'd do better to post to him. Our purpose in following the CRB is as an early warning signal for when we'll pass through the deflationary period we are in now, to the expected inflationary period. Probably too soon for that, so that would fit the notion of just a corrective bounce here. 2) Sentiment Your assertion that "the bulls are pretty fervent here, and even the steadfast bears have reconciled themselves to further upside action in the short run" just does not stand up to the numbers. It is not at extremes. Most measures are barely above average -- midrange in other words. Not the sort of thing that one should feel comfortable shorting for a very long time. The thing that's been really telling is the way it quickly shifts to bearish on any sort of decline. The lack of belief in this rally is shocking compared to the previous two rallies. I believe we need to print a new high soon to cement bullish sentiment, at least enough to allow a decent decline to get legs as price falls while sentiment shows complacency. I will be shorting fairly aggressively into the next advance. Cheers