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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jjstingray who wrote (4648)	11/10/2001 6:45:33 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

My eyeball says CIEN 17.5 at expiry. On really good news I could see a move to 20+. Bad news delta hedging could drop it anwhere. There is no put "support" below 15. If it breaks 15 it will really go to hell. Most likely IMHO is flopping around between 17.5 and 18.5 M

To: jjstingray who wrote (4648)	11/10/2001 7:20:57 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 99280

My bet is that Ciena goes up on Monday. Look at the huge amount of put activity in the 18 to 20 area. The stock is currently trading at 17.18. I think it will go above those levels to justify the max pain theroy I looked at the open interest for options on CIEN. Wow! Lots of put activity. If this conference call Monday morning is not that bad, I can see this one going up big (over 20) this coming week. It could be related to QWEST's reduction in spending announced a week ago and that may already be partially or fully factored into the stock price. The other thing to note is that short interest went up about 45% from September to October on this stock.