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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (4659)	11/11/2001 11:55:11 AM
From: DlphcOracl	Respond to of 99280

Just a hunch, but.... The NASDAQ strength over the past several weeks simply cannot be ignored. For me, the most telling event was QCOM's 1-2 point gain after it warned and gained negative forward guidance. Additionally, the increasing number of negative analysts ratings, due to overvaluation from the 35% rise in the QQQ's since 9/11, had no effect. For now, I think it is wiser to err leaning toward the long side. I think the first day or two of next week will tell "the tale of the tape". If the indices sell off (specifically, if the Nasdaq penetrates and remains below 1800), I see the Naz heading toward 1765-1780 or possibly 1738, its 50-day moving average. However, if the Nasdaq consolidates for another day or two (little movement either way with low-to-medium volume), I think it will be off to the races for another week or two. If Nasdaq reaches 1930-1940 on decent volume, I see it blowing right past this to its 200-day moving average at or near 2000. Please remember that this has nothing to do with logic, valuation, etc., just momentum and market trend. However, it cannot be ignored and fighting the tape will be costly. Nasdaq run to 2000, if it occurs, will set us up for a nasty selloff in December warning season if tech companies suggest that "recovery" will not occur until late in 2002 or early 2003. Just my weekend ramblings and thoughts. Comments and brickbats are invited.