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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (9595)	11/10/2001 11:43:44 PM
From: FR1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

One lession I have learned from the early chapters of this Internet saga is that capital spenders can get easily squeezed when the Fed decides to take away the liquidity punchbowl. ... You are exactly right and it was the most painful lesson of my life. Nobody believed the FED could be stupid enough to dry up the liquidity and sit on it until all the growth sectors of our economy were destroyed. The FED who is overseen by nobody and who has no members with business experience (all professors - none have run a large corp) wanted to physically see hundreds of thousands of pink slips before they stopped because they are hung up on the already disproved old economic theory that low employment = inflation. Anyhow, now for the good news: 1) Although they killed the economy and prevented any growth from going forward, they did not kill the scientific need and desire for broadband. 2) Now they have to liquify the economy and beg for all the growth to come back. As usual they will overdo it but that is good for longs. 3) Our problem now is that many of the IPS and other telcom players have gone BK or are up to their ears in debt (thanks AG). However, cash is flowing and the need is there so we will eventually bring back the IPOs and rekindle the competition. IMHO, Provided no terrorist problems, now is a great time to buy long in the suppliers (AMCC, JDSU, PMCS, BRCM). Incidentally, you might want to look up the recent INTC webcast that might still be available. They covered the future of their major areas including optics. The optics guy had a very impressive chart that showed the growth in teribytes of info being pumped over the web. It was at a 45 degree angle right through the downturn and shocked all the forcasters who thought dotcom bust meant traffic bust. What is happening is that current users are starting to do a lot more streaming, etc. The INTC broadcast was classic example - two live streaming windows (one for speaker and one for charts) and one for viewer questions. It worked great! I am sure everyone is going to start using this technique.