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To: TobagoJack who wrote (11071)	11/11/2001 4:14:21 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

SZ Euro land Economy Indicator by DGZ·DekaBank xave.de The SZ Euro land indicator has fallen also in November: more and more market indicators show the direct negative effects of 11/09 terrorist attacks in the USA. In view of the uncertain world-political environment these negative waves slosh over almost without delay onto the scene of European national economies. Before this backdrop it is not amazing that the SZ euro land indicator fell also in November: The trend deviation dropped in the current month by around 0,27 per cent points to minus 2,36 per cent. Thus the sum indicator is still one per cent point over its lowest point, reached during last recession at the beginning of 1993. However, the SZ euro land indicator shows weakening of market conditions, that is stronger than the one observed during the two recent clouded periods in the middle of the nineties and after the Asia crisis. Above all the two industrial climate indicators (ifo business expectations, Reuters purchasing manager index) gave way last very clearly, while the incoming orders and the interest difference exerted positive impulses on the sum indicator. The recovery of the share prices in October likewise influenced the SZ euro land indicator in a positive fashion.. SZ saturday/Sunday 11.11.01 Unsolicited and unauthorized translation DJ. See printer-friendly version at www.xave.de/DJsCorner

To: TobagoJack who wrote (11071)	11/12/2001 11:01:47 AM
From: MeDroogies	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Well, Sept. 11 certainly was an unexpected twist, wasn't it? Still, my philosophy hasn't hurt me, and in fact led to some unexpected opportunities as I made considerable sums selling ORCL puts 2 days afterward and buying them back last week(being moderately more bullish than you...I wasn't willing to sell the market short though I knew it was a money making opp...I just didn't feel it was morally right to give our enemies a chance to make a buck since it was likely they, too, were trading based on this viewpoint). Money should, occasionally, be viewed from a higher moral/ethical plane. Unfortunately, many of us tend to separate them. That's okay, though. It's all about differing standpoints. Where do we stand now? Good question. I previously felt that the "recession" wouldn't dip into "recession" but would moderate over a longer period of time. Clearly, that has changed. But I'm realistic too. Greenspan has done just the right thing. In the face of, and suddenly increasing, deflationary pressures, he has lowered interest rates. I still see the Fed lowering rates another 3/4 to a full point in the next 6-8 months before the tide is altered. This is HUGELY beneficial to both me and anyone who was smart enough to take advantage of refinancing opps (which are up 500% in the last month). I have an additional cash on hand, lower monthly payments, and a good situation where the money I've borrowed is less than 50% of my house's value. I can withstand a fallback in housing prices. In general, I'd say there are more people in not such a good situation as I, but that their situation is improving. So, from where I sit, I see 2 more quarters of declines in the GDP, a flat market, but a marked increase in reduction of revolving credit, and an increase in savings. Earlier in the year, I expected a turnaround by Jan/Feb, now I'd push it back to August. The terrorist threat is overrated. People reacting to it out of fear are foolish. Our economy thrives on opportunity and new markets. This "threat" is short-term, and actually has created several new markets to deal with it. In the short run, it requires the redirection of funds. In the long run, it will create additional outlets for wealth and jobs. For those of you who disagree with my assessment of terrorism, I suggest you review the histories of other 1st world countries that have lived with it. I've lived in 2 and visited 1. As shocked as I was by recent events, it didn't change any of my viewpoints, just my timelines.