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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: capt rocky 1 who wrote (4698)	11/11/2001 11:36:07 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 99280

ERTS - we are perhaps going well off the deep end here. 5,000-6,000 puts or calls is not going to determine much. quote.cboe.com No one cares much about ERTS. Yes, 5,000 is something vs nothing as there are stocks where options are in the hundreds and that stuff is 100% meaningless for sure. I am not sure where I would draw the line but this is too close to make any reasonable guesses. The box clearly is 50-55 with ERTS right in the middle. That is not a tight "options box", however, at those levels of options. compare that with: 127,000 INTC Nov 25 Calls vs 125,000 PUTs 50,000 INTC Nov 27.5 Calls vs 11,000 PUTs 44,000 INTC Nov 30 Calls vs 24,000 Puts This is where the eyeball method wins over Max Pain IMHO. Max pain is clearly 25. We are too far over that (in all liklihood) for us to fall to 25. However, the eyeball method says 27.5 will not hold. Thus I would suggest a close between 25 and 27.5 with my guess at 26-27. OTOH if INTC refuses to drop close to or below 27.5, then we could soar up to 30. INTC at 30 at Nov expiry would be very very painful to the bears cause this market would be much much higher. M