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To: X Y Zebra who wrote (30002)11/11/2001 1:16:53 PM
From: X Y Zebra  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 208838
 
Further detail on the retail stocks, worth considering:

Nevertheless, the economic and political situation has created a pocket of opportunity for discount chains, warehouse clubs and drugstores such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT: up $0.68 to $54.50, Research, Estimates), Target Corp. (TGT: up $0.24 to $34.35, Research, Estimates), B.J.'s Wholesale Club Inc. (BJ: down $3.45 to $49.14, Research, Estimates), and Walgreen Co. (WAG: down $0.17 to $32.13, Research, Estimates).




Wal-Mart, the world's biggest retailer, has by far headed the pack, managing to offer every-day low prices because of its strong supplier relationships, tight management and inventory controls and customer service.

It's stock is trading at about $55, not far off its 52-week high of $58.75 set in January.

The company and analysts said the company has benefited from bargain-conscious consumers looking to buy more every-day items, which Wal-Mart sells.

Wal-Mart has previously acknowledged that it has seen customers snapping up lower-priced items than usual, which hurts profits, but by continuing to offer these items and making sure they stay in stock, the company expects to grab even more market share from the industry.

Target's stock has been a strong performer, though it has struggled a bit with competition from Wal-Mart and the drag from the Marshall-Fields and Mervyn's Department Stores it operates. Target shares are trading above $35, down from their 52-week high of $40.43.

B.J.'s Wholesale Club, which offers cat food, steaks, motor oil and other common items in bulk at wholesale prices, has seen its stock remain fairly steady, though it is down to about $51 from its 52-week high of $57.24 set over the summer.


An interesting situation, since these stocks are not amongst the 5 best (nor the 5 worst)... is it possible that their sales may increase due to increasing their market share by taking customers away from other retailers, given the softer economic climate and job market ?

Possibly... but WDIK.

money.cnn.com



To: X Y Zebra who wrote (30002)11/11/2001 3:30:14 PM
From: Jimbobwae  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 208838
 
The point of my message is that it's ridiculous for an author to lump a strong performing stock like CHS as a "Worst" performing stock. That's all.

I picked the low as a result of the 9/11 "effect" for the comparison. Both stocks are up relatively the same in percentage terms:

stockcharts.com

IMO CHS should not be classed as a "Worst" performing stock in the same class as CVS.

Furthermore, I did not even read the article and did not claim to. Its not necessary. Why read something so obvious?

The key is to decide if these conditions will persist or might there be a short term overreaction to the downside that sets up a buying opportunity?

Its interesting that you should accept what is written so literally and not question the accuracy of the evidence while at the same time "nitpicking" (not nick picking) my message that was qualified by the term cursory - "Performed with haste and scant attention to detail"

The other speculative dimension here is to explore the contrarian view that as the media piles on in the wake of the impact on retail stocks to look for a conventional point of view to capitalize on.

Finally, please speak for yourself in defining "Our job as traders is to figure out what they will do next"

I don't presume to know what is going to happen next, I just measure risk/reward and speculate accordingly.