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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Estephen who wrote (79708)	11/11/2001 4:47:01 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

What's a reasonable valuation for Rambus these days? Given that it's now clear that Intel has accelerated the transition of P4 to DDR to this quarter (instead of sometime next year) what's rambus worth? Well, they had revenues (on paper) of about $23.3 million last quarter, of which $10 million was from Intel, and costs of $21.4 million - but how much of that was real revenue? $3.5 million wasn't current revenue, but listing for the quarter a part of the money it received for licenses in its heyday (that money is sitting as the $1.70 per share in current assets). Another $5.6 million of listed revenue comes from the 1,000% explosion of their accounts receivable - probably a sign the SDRAM and DDR licensees have slowed or stopped payments (to be expected after the court cases all but invalidated Rambus's claims to those technologies), but that Rambus is pretending that they're still going to get all that money and continues to make accounting entries as though that were the case. But the reality is, it looks like they lost about $3 million last quarter, and that losses for Rambus will be increasing steadily from now on. That big burst in accounts receivable since they lost their court cases is really bad news - Rambus should probably be a penny stock at this point. Estephen, you might want to cut your losses while there is anything left at all. And even that $1.70 per share in current assets is looking questionable, given all the suits against Rambus (some of which have already been lost, but Rambus refuses to provide an allowance in its accounts even for judgements already entered against it, much less any provision against the real possibility that it will keep on losing).