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Gold/Mining/Energy : Nuvo Research Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Montana Wildhack who wrote (8000)	11/11/2001 4:51:03 PM
From: Montana Wildhack	Respond to of 14101

Here's another small company that didn't do much better than we did in Europe - but it triggered a $2 million milestone payment on their deal and the stock jumped 20%. VIVUS' (VVUS) MUSE Receives Marketing Licenses In France, Norway, Austria And Portugal -- Astra AB (A) To Pay $2.0 Million Milestone -- VIVUS Stock Up +20.4% On Thursday At Market Close VIVUS, Inc. (Nasdaq:VVUS - news) today announced that the Company has received notification that the marketing license for MUSE® (alprostadil) in France has been granted. This license triggers a $2 million milestone payment to VIVUS from ASTRA. In addition, Norway and the European Union countries of Portugal and Austria have recently issued licenses for MUSE. Founded in 1991, VIVUS, Inc. is a leader in the development of advanced therapeutic systems for the treatment of erectile dysfunction, commonly referred to as impotence. VIVUS has pioneered a novel therapy for erectile dysfunction known as the transurethral system for erection. This therapy consists of a proprietary, non-invasive drug delivery system that delivers pharmacologic agents via the urethra. (Story from Bloomberg expired) (3/18/99) (press release expired) (3/18/99) Should we be pushing an erectile application??

To: Montana Wildhack who wrote (8000)	11/11/2001 6:10:21 PM
From: Montana Wildhack	Respond to of 14101

Using the previously posted data we can get some reasonable market size estimates for Pennsaid: Assume: 1. All values at current conversion (1.43 euros/ 2.34 pounds to the Cdn dollar) 2. Use the 1997 data for market size 3. Apply the stated 260 million pound UK market percentage to the approved markets 260x2.34 divided by 7881x1.43 (.054) 4. Use the numbers paid by insurances rather than the overall pharma markets in those countries. Austria 1217 times 1.43 equals 1740 times .054 equals 94 Finland 559 times 1.43 equals 799 times .054 equals 43 Italy 6038 times 1.43 equals 8634 times .054 equals 466 UK 7881 times 1.43 equals 11270 times .054 equals 608 Meaning the market size where countries have agreed to pay for Pennsaid through insurance schemes is 1,211 million Cdn. An overall statment of arriving at this is assuming that Austria, Finland, and Italy have similar percentage arthritis payouts as the UK. Note the use of 1997 market sizes and the statment on many arthritis sites that with age demographics, the demand for arthritis drugs is growing in double digits for years to come. Assuming 5% sales and a 30% royalty with a 33% direct cost this translates into some 15 million Cdn gross profit growing presumably in the same double digits. Not enough to celebrate; but, enough to see a minor profit if we only do this poorly (its good stuff Dimethaid, keep going, I'm just analyzing the moment). Adding a Germany or France doubles this: Germany 16313 times 1.43 equals 23327 times .054 equals 1259 At this point DMX for Pennsaid is: Markets entered: one Markets approved: six Markets actively being sought: twelve (additional) Market size achieved (Cdn): 610 million Market size approved: 1,211 million Market size actively being sought: 16 billion (additional) I'd like to see an OXO deal this month with all payments based on milestones. Here's to a better week. Wolf