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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Baton who wrote (4759)	11/11/2001 10:32:41 PM
From: Rich1	Respond to of 99280

FWIW I heard this weekend that DIS will not be developing the balance of Celebration where they have over 20,000 acres of land. Heard when they finish the East Village that will be it. Very surprised to hear that..as they had started to get some momentum before this slowdown..

To: Baton who wrote (4759)	11/11/2001 11:48:49 PM
From: Timetobuy	Respond to of 99280

I haven't really looked into leaps and so I don't know what premiums they'd have. But I would look at anything that depends on an economic recovery: Oil drillers (on a dip, probably when oil trades down on some worries on oversupply or a warm winter. Sometimes they move with NAT GAS), Travel and Leisure (cruise liners have a capacity issue, but maybe it's priced in. They've already had a big move. Buy them if the market is down on some bad economic scare, if we get one. E-learning, brokerages (already moved a good deal. Buy them if they trade down on a valuation downgrade), Jdsu (I'm just not sure WHEN growth returns, so I'd buy the shares as opposed to otm leaps. It could sit here for a while with a slight uptrend maybe), Amcc, Pmcs (both pretty high valuations right now. Buy amcc shares or pmcs leaps if they're hit on downgrades or some semiconductor sell off. Amcc is especially expensive, but the best positioned IC chip. Once again, not sure when growth returns. Probably second half of 2002. Maybe Cien (that whole sector is probably good for trading until growth ticks up again). Opwv (slow 3G rollout is affecting it and slowing handset sales. If it can manage to start growing again which is partly helped by an economic recovery, this one should do quite well, but you may as well just get shares and forget leaps. Probably bases for a while. No hurry to get it). I bought GM (speculative due to their pension fund and balance sheet woes, but I think it's priced in), but I wouldn't buy leaps. Leaps don't pay a dividend. I'll sell GM if/when it recovers, probably by getting it called away from me on a covered call play. I have Disney shares partly for the dividend (paltry) and partly because I'll be selling calls against it for income (I have to have something that zigs while my volatile issues zag and provides some stability), so I prefer the shares to leaps.