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To: tech101 who wrote (958)11/12/2001 5:54:04 PM
From: Artslaw  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1056
 
Of course DRAM prices are bottoming--DRAM is virtually free! Can't drop below zero. . .

Anyway, if these forecasters were any good, they would have all retired wealthy from their previous predictions!

Here's a recent cool-sounding headline:
Amkor Starts Producing Saw-Singulated QFN Packages

biz.yahoo.com

Steve



To: tech101 who wrote (958)11/13/2001 8:15:10 AM
From: Jim Oravetz  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1056
 
Is It Time to Cash in Your Chips?
By ERIC J. SAVITZ
Barrons article, Sat Nov. 10th

Well, that settles it.

We're heading for a big-time recovery in chip demand. It says so, right here in the latest forecast from the Semiconductor Industry Association. The trade group expects chip sales will finish this year down a whopping 31%, but that sales will rebound to show 6% growth in 2002, followed by 21% gains in both 2003 and 2004. Woo-hoo! Just like old times.

Alas, the SIA's track record for predicting demand is a little, uh, unreliable. Care to guess what the SIA had predicted one year ago for 2001? Would you believe 22% growth? In other words, they whiffed big time, which as it happens is not infrequently the case with the SIA's forecasting.

But let's not be too hard on them; the truth is, forecasting chip demand is a chancy business at best. Terry Ragsdale, a semiconductor analyst at Goldman Sachs, hesitates to provide projections for more than a quarter or two. Press him, and he'll predict a flat year for 2002.

snip....

businessweek.com

For Memory Chips, a Time to Forget
With too much capacity still on-line, the most popular chips are selling below cost. The upshot: Shakeout ahead

Semiconductor companies have all gotten whacked this year, but none harder than producers of memory chips. Prices of dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips, used to store data on personal computers, fell 80% in 2001, vs. a falloff of only about one-third for the overall chip market. With memory chips now often selling below cost, Boise (Idaho)-based Micron Technology, the only major U.S. memory-chip producer, recorded a net loss of $521 million for fiscal 2001 ended Aug. 30 -- a huge downturn, considering the company earned $1.55 billion the year before.

snip...

Jim