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Politics : WAR on Terror. Will it engulf the Entire Middle East? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scoobah who wrote (247)	11/13/2001 12:47:07 AM
From: Scoobah	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32591

Tuesday, November 13, 2001 Cheshvan 27, 5762 Israel Time: 07:45 (GMT+2) U.S. starts pushing for Tenet-Mitchell implementation By Nitzan Horowitz and Nathan Guttman The United States is about to shift gears out of its relatively detached attitude to the Middle East conflict and step up its involvement. This follows Secretary of State Colin Powell's meetings with Palestinian Chairman Yasser Arafat and Foreign Minister Shimon Peres, a U.S. Administration source said yesterday. It appears Washington will begin trying to implement the moribund Tenet cease-fire agreement and the Mitchell Report recommendations, even before launching the next stage of its world campaign - against more terrorist groups and possibly against the regimes that support them. In the last two days, the Americans outlined the contours of the new initiative on the Middle East, coming out in favor of a Palestinian state on condition that violence ends. The timing coincides with efforts by the administration to persuade Muslim and Arab states to lend their support for a second stage of the American war on terrorism, if the latest successes against the Taliban in Afghanistan continue. Jerusalem sources say the Bush administration is adopting a "carrot and stick" approach to Arafat - continuing to pressure him to enforce a cease-fire and clamp down on violence, while holding out the "diplomatic vision" of a Palestinian state. Arafat apparently promised Powell at their Sunday meeting that he would move along the lines of the Tenet plan and the Mitchell Report. In his nine months in office, Bush has refused to meet Arafat, but Powell said on Sunday the president would meet the Palestinian leader as progress is made. Powell also said Bush's use of "Palestine" in his speech before the UN General Assembly - a forum which gave the declaration special resonance - was deliberate. Powell described it as "a powerful signal" and, he said, no other republican president has gone so far. Meanwhile both Israel and Palestinian officials are doing their best to obtain details of the political principles which Powell is planning to flesh out in an upcoming speech. The Secretary of State is expected to make the principles public next week. The administration is being guided by its desire to achieve "industrial quiet" in the Middle East, and the Tenet and Mitchell plans are the only bases from which to launch it, sources in Israel say. The Americans are not planning to achieve a substantive peace at this stage, but rather regional quiet, so their efforts against world terror will not be hampered. Israeli observers interpret the initiative as an effort to prevent cracks in the coalition and to placate moderate Arab voices, particularly those of Egypt and Saudi Arabia. However, the initiatives are basically being voiced by more moderate elements in Washington, those of the State Department, and not necessarily those that will hold sway - the Pentagon, the Bush inner circle and National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice. In Jerusalem, the prime minister's office and the foreign ministry are working in tandem to ensure that Israeli interests are integrated into the American initiative. At all events, sources believe, Washington is unlikely to come out with a plan that will be a substantive change in Republican administration thinking. The Americans have basically accepted Israel's view that it cannot negotiate under fire, there can be no permanent agreement at present, and no forced solutions. They do not expect that American pressure will be brought to bear on Israel. Instead the Americans are expected to draw an outline for "Palestine" - as it is now known since Bush's speech - that is far more generous than that envisaged by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. There would be more land, more significant territorial contiguity, and all the outward trappings of a state. This would be the quid pro quo for Palestinian acquiescence in postponing the complicated issues of Jerusalem and the refugees until a later date. Arafat yesterday held talks with Jordan's King Abdullah in Amman and an official statement said he briefed the monarch on international efforts to reactivate the peace process. Abdullah stressed the need to leave violence behind and resume talks and said a settlement should include a Palestinian capital in east Jerusalem. If indeed the Americans succeed in getting the Palestinians to toe the line, the latter will benefit from American economic aid and other assistance. As the initiative progresses and the violence decreases, Bush will meet Arafat, as Powell has promised. It is against this backdrop that Sharon and Peres will be holding discussions, when Peres returns from the U.S., to crystalize alternative proposals Israel will bring up when the American plan is fleshed out. In this way, Israel will not appear to be recalcitrant or to be putting an obstructive spanner in the works of the American initiative at such a fateful time. And so I ask, what if this latest attempt at appeasement doesn't work? What happens then? Can Israel crush the rebellion?