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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EnricoPalazzo who wrote (48819)	11/13/2001 11:28:31 AM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 54805

Ardethan - severe numbers... might balance each other out. That was kind of my purpose. I was just revealing the kind of assumptions that need to be assumed in order for the stock to have an economic value approximating its share price. And all I was saying is that amongst the various Gorillas, MSFT's needs stretch the imagination the least. Compare with QCOM. Over on the QCOM thread they are talking as though FCF is 1.2 B$ based on Q4 results. Seems folks can't distinguish between FCF and Operating Cash Flow. FCF is closer to 780 M$, generously estimating income tax benefit of stock options at 0$ because Qualcomm doesn't reveal this number. Anyway, I'd have to give them 25% for 15 years using the same algorithm to get $52.21 Which really really really stretches the imagination. Because in 2016 (a) we might have 3G deployed <vbg>, and (b) their main CDMA-ASIC tollgate patents will have been expired for many years, (c) some bright spark in some other company may file a key patent and hold their feet to the fire instead, (d) some other wireless bit transport protocol may emerge disruptively and carve a bypass around the tollgate, or (e) the GSM/CDMA debate gets settled the same way as the VHS/BETA debate. And yet meanwhile I might find myself purchasing a brand new bagel-o-matic. With Intel Cisco IBM Sony AOL and GE inside. And having to upgrade all of my household appliances to Windows 2016 (Household Edition) because rumored "incompatibilities" with prior versions cause it to incinerate one out of every six bagels... John