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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Second_Titan who wrote (10487)	11/13/2001 8:02:37 AM
From: aerosappy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Que -- techland via Tech Data (TECD). I have held many shares of TECD for 6.5 years -- quite a roller-coaster. I write covered calls. <img src="http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=TECD,uu[r,a]dbclyymy[dc][pb5!b15!d20,2!f][vc60][iub14!ua12,26,9!li14,3][J1786163,Y]"> Despite the name, it is an "outsourced logistics partner" for IT consultants and vendors such as CSCO, IBM, CPQ, HWP and 50,000 others. Revenues are about $25 billion (as stated in GAAP), but as a logistics company the real measure of revenues should be gross margin. No accounting tricks. I like it because of solid earnings, reasonable P/E (generally in the mid-teens), great management and no technological or product obsolesce risk. The CEO owns a large block and has run the company for 20+ years (since earning a masters in International Affairs from Georgetown -- useful now that 45%+ of revenues are in Euroland, LA and Canada). I believe that one of these years GE, UPS or FDX will acquire TECD. The stock has fallen in the past 3 days due to a Ray-James downgrade to Buy from Strong Buy.

To: Second_Titan who wrote (10487)	11/13/2001 2:31:41 PM
From: Warpfactor	Respond to of 23153

<<Any suggestions for the manic trip up in techland or other non-energy?>> It would be difficult to suggest the buying of tech after this runup, but I'm still on the lookout for possible breakout opportunities. One stock that looks like a nice candidate for an upside pop right here and now is PSFT. However, I don't own any and I'm laying off it. Been selling off some trading positions again today. I started accumulating JDSU for LT back in August - first of 3 buys at 10.00. Today, JDSU is back trading over 10. Nice looking parabola in the making: stockcharts.com[w,a]dacayymy[d20010101,20011113][pb200!b50][vc60][iUb14!Lc25!Lc7!Lk28!Lk14!Lf]

To: Second_Titan who wrote (10487)	11/13/2001 2:58:47 PM
From: cnyndwllr	Respond to of 23153

Q, I'm no T/A guy and you have to wonder if this rally won't pause and possibly retrace even without any new bad news so I offer some stocks with caveats on timing. I am however, investing in or watching closely avir, webm, dish, immr, nuan, lynx, rsas and tfs, among others. Lynx is risky but has a lot of upside and can move very quickly since it has a low float. Avir is, for the third time, knocking on the door of fda approval for it's flu mist nasal vaccine. It will move up or down on the fda news but, in any event, should make an appreciable move in the next few months. Dish is a future giant if things go well for it but right now it is in the middle of trying to acquire direct tv; gmh, and it's price is suffering. Nuan and webm are good stocks with bright futures when tech recovers. Webm is the least risky of the two in my opinion. Tfs is a sort of flat panel play with new liquid crystal display products. I like it a lot but I am out of it now and it doesn't seem to have moved as much as others on this last rally. Immr is a small company with fairly conservative management that has a lot of patents on technology that brings touch sense to computor applications. It is really interesting and may generate some real gains someday. Rsas is a computer security company that really screwed up lately when it sold a bunch of puts on it's own stock and had to buy the stock at it's put prices when the stock was much lower in price. They have started to recover from this fiasco and are in the right niche with, hopefully, some good products and should do ok in their core business. Hope this helps someone, it hasn't done all that much for me. g. Ed

To: Second_Titan who wrote (10487)	11/13/2001 4:29:05 PM
From: Mark Adams	Respond to of 23153

Some interesting extracts- the whole article is worth a read; Our view is that foreign economies may well be slower to bounce than that of the United States, but that their recoveries will be more sustainable and, eventually, stronger. Thus, at some point, probably in the next eighteen months, we could well witness a synchronized upswing of the global economy, even with a more subdued American performance. This would be good for everyone, but especially so for traditional industries that have struggled with global overcapacity for much of the last decade – commodities and industrial materials in particular. {cut} If there are values in today’s stock market, they are to be found in traditional industries that struggled in a deflationary environment throughout most of the 1990s and have emerged lean and mean from that struggle. For those, while their P/E ratios may not seem cheap, estimates of profit growth may have become excessively modest, reflecting assumptions that extrapolate the environment of the last decade rather than the emerging one. This new environment will be characterized, we think, by better-shared global growth and less deflation – possibly even some inflation. {cut} In Europe, the situation is broadly similar to that in the United States, though policies seem less decisive. In Japan, forceful restructuring measures being implemented at the corporate level (if not yet at the macro-economic one) promise much higher levels of future profitability, thus leaving room for major earnings surprises and substantial stock appreciation. As for emerging markets, Asian ones in particular, they resemble a massive fire sale, which mixes troubled companies with veritable gems sporting overly liquid balance sheets at once-in-a-lifetime low prices. All this confirms our view that, on the next economic upswing, more money will be made in foreign stock markets than in American ones. investavenue.com