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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (5310)	11/13/2001 5:00:11 PM
From: vampire	Respond to of 99280

Not worried about that at all...cant do anything about the past anyhoo...i'm worried (though i really wouldn't say worried...i worry about illnesses..i dont worry about stocks) where the next 200 Naz points will be

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (5310)	11/13/2001 6:44:24 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev, the argument I like to present to people is the risk/reward ratio. At this level, the risk/reward is heavily in favor of being out of the market or short. Even if we go to 1940, that's only 2-1/2% higher than we are right now. A .618 re-trace of the rise from 1383 to today's close would take us to 1700, which is 11% lower than we are right now. Even a 50% re-trace of the move up from 1745 is a 4% gain versus the brick wall at 1940 at 2.5% gain. There is very little besides a frontal lobotomy that would compel me to go long and join the lemmings who are going buy-buy-buy right now.