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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: slacker711 who wrote (48845)	11/13/2001 7:46:21 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

i think it's interesting to look at the PSRs of the semis as well. look, for example, at Micron--it is selling at close to 9 times run-rate sales, and lost more last quarter than it sold. in November 1990, Micron sold for under 1x sales even though it made money that year.

To: slacker711 who wrote (48845)	11/13/2001 8:58:14 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

slacker711 - the argument isn't against the stocks. There are sometimes great bargains to be had amongst these folks too. The issue we have at the moment is not whether or not profits were $x, or that growth is y%, it is whether or not one can construct a reasonable y that makes shares worth Z; Sure, if Qualcomm grows by 25% per year from now for the next 15 years, then buying it at $55 will have been smart. Now, does that make Tech a bad investment? No. It makes one want to think twice about all the avenues of growth for QCOM and the barriers to growth and to wonder whether or not it can succeed. Are the big guys like Cisco and Intel cyclicals? Then why the heck do people talk about PEG instead of RMS earnings and cycle period? So this is not the mirror image argument about extrapolating JDSU's 100% growth ad-infinitum. We're examining the extrapolations that need to come true in order to justify a current price and asking the question "how reasonable are these necessary assumptions"? If we don't like the assumptions, it's hard to like the conclusion. John.