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To: Doo who wrote (21049)	11/13/2001 10:19:15 PM
From: 4rthofjuly007	Respond to of 209892

One interesting note on the vix. Since the Sept. low, it has been in a pretty steady downtrend, setting lower lows on the way. It has come down over 50% without anything resembling a retest of the highs. There was a retest in Oct '98. In between spikes the market rallied pretty significantly. We got a re-test of the vix in April as well. If we look at the vix alone, it seems like a greater than 50% haircut in fear in such a short period of time without any sort of re-test is quite "frothy".

To: Doo who wrote (21049)	11/14/2001 8:57:56 AM
From: JRI	Respond to of 209892

Jeffry- We are probably (more) on the same page then you think. I am not claiming that hitting VIX 25 will bring a full retrace to the previous low. It may or may not. But what I am more confident in...is that VIX 25 will be a good place to start a short position trade, which, with patience, should bring a good return. We have bounced so far off the bottom now, that even a .382% retrace will be quite nice to play. In fact, one main scenario being followed here that we are in an A-B-C correction off the 2000 top. If that is the case, we will be a B down- after this A ends (the B will be a big down move, but may/may not reach previous lows) and then a C up (which could meet exceed previous 2300 COMP top). If this scenario holds/true, plays out....we would not get the big "killer" down wave to/past the new, recent lows until sometime in the spring (starting), and it may not break the previous low until next June, which ironically is your 9 month target. So, you see, we are not that different-g Looks like VIX in the 27s sometime this morn, and if we don't reverse this open during the day, I wouldn't be surprised to see 26+...However, I am leaning towards some retrace/back-n-fill coming very, very soon...may take a while longer to seriously approach 25-26...which is A-OK.. Continued best..may we both make money..edit: I am totally flat here, so I hope we gap to the moon ng