Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (5029)	11/14/2001 1:44:29 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

The rally since 9-21 is getting towards meaningful selling levels .... A pullback or another leg down??? NASD 200 dma is 1997 (Day Moving Average--Simple) SPX 200 dma is 1190, we were at 1150 yesterday so only 3.5% below the 200 dma. DJIA 200 dma is 10211 RUT (the Russell 2000) 200 dma is 468 and we were at 452 this morning. Statistically the market just about never, able to just blow through it's 200 dma's when it's been such a large percentage level below it's 200 dma as we were on Sept 21st when we made the autumnal equinox bottom. More typical price action would be a price pullback, that lasts for a number of weeks as these indicies hit their 200 dma's. Now since the hedge funds and other macro managers know this they are likely doing some selling right now since we're getting pretty close to these levels. And they have to anticipate market moves, since they are dealing in size. just look at the very large volume today: 11:38 ET Volume : Total volume traded is decidedly heavy today. The Nasdaq has already cleared 1 billion total shares traded while the NYSE has had 618 million shares cross the tape. and note EMLX...... EMLX has gotten back to it's 200 dma in the past 5 days or so and after not being able to close above it with authority; itis now falling back below it today. obviously profit taking and shorts have been established at the 200 dma. QCOM is another stock that is failing at it's 200 dma and pull back to 48 over the next few weeks. NOW FOR the BEARISH argument.... In Bear Markets you have great secondary selling and shorting opportunities on these rallies back up to declining 200 dma's. It's very possible that the market is setting up for a retest of it's Sept lows. We have had the greatest monetary stimulus of the entire existence of the Federal Reserve, since it's creation in 1913, and we've seen the biggest bubble pop since 1929 here and 1989 in Japan. How do these different diametrically opposing currents interact and what is the oscillation pattern of Market Prices with this happening? not just equities, but bonds, the USDollar and Commodities. Will the CRB pull out of it's downward spiral? And what future path will the "War on Terrorism" Travel. We don't really have an analogue for this. But it's reasonable to expect to see some selling between current levels and the 200 dma's and then we'll watch the market internals, Leadership, also make sure the USDollar stays reasonably firm, and developments from Washington. John