I'm not sure if you are talking about Comdex the site or Comdex the exhibition, but since you don't specify a URL, I guess you mean the exhibition. Being a European, comdex is not interesting enough to go there.
When you talk about "the future", it depends very much on which part of the world you are talking about. Intranets, internet web and web controlled devices and servers have been around for ages now and is not something new, but when it comes to actual turnover, the growth is still there.
My experience, however, is that XML-based transmissions in many kinds are very hot right now. I know many projects that either do XML-based database access, provide services with XML, or simply batch transfer data via XML. And then there are all the technologies that also use IP, that are now used via the Internet, too, like IM, SMS/E-mail gateways, computer games, voice over IP, P2P information and calculation networks etc. Most of these services do not use or will not use HTML pages for their primary user interface.
There is no doubt, that the number of programs/services, that we use, will increase dramatically. Even when we write messages on SiliconInvestory, we use SiliconInvestor software located on Sun servers.
In order to manage this increasing amount of software, we need to be able to use this software via clients that already exist on our computer or that are seamlessly downloaded and installed on a runtime, like CLI or Java.
There are many such client technologies on a typical computer today, and you can create services and experiences for:
- Generic, standards compatible browsers
- Specific browsers with specific features, like MSIE
- Terminal Services Client, Citrix Client, VNC etc...
- Runtimes like Java, CLI
- MSN Explorer (like in Windows XP)
- Information services like KDict, Newsticker etc.
- Computer Games (for instance, a modified Tribes 2 server changes the game that is played totally, without having the user install another game)
In order to have all this running, you need to make sure the client is installed on the computer. There are several distribution methods:
1) Installed with the operating system or when you bought the computer.
2) Seperate installation from CD or other media.
3) Installed seamlessly via the internet via existing client software.
4) Installed by downloading an installation program from the internet.
Since manual installation procedures are costly in support and manhours, 1) and 3) are the preferred methods. Java, CLI, Webpages etc. all belong to 3), whereas the internet card games in Windows Me/XP belong to 1).
Because of security reasons, method 3) normally is limited in ability and the slowest solution, whereas 1) is as secure as the OS.
This is a major reason why the amount of software included in a Linux distribution is a competitive advantage.
In the future, however, we may see an improved version of 3), where we have certain software supply channels, from which we get software updates and new software. Red Hat automatically delivers and installs software via Red Hat Network, and Microsoft is working very hard to achieve the same goal, and has already made the possibility to download updates etc. via built-in software. Computer Games like Tribes 2 also automatically update themselves when started in order to patch against cheats (hackers).
Red Hat still distributes new versions via CDs, because most users don't like to download several gigabytes of software, but in the future, CDs will also here be replaced by the Red Hat Network.
So the future is a combination of:
- Automatically updated, trusted, CPU native software.
- Downloaded software using run-times like Java and CLI
- Web pages.
Web pages are interesting, but not everything.
Lars. |
