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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EnricoPalazzo who wrote (48890)	11/14/2001 12:56:53 PM
From: Judith Williams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

ardethan-- not that it should matter but there wasn't consensus [about QCOM] I don't think there was consensus on JDSU either. When I did a Network report on JDSU, it seemed to me that optics in general were so early in the TALC that their manufacturing processes were still in the cottage industry stage. JDSU seemed to have been crowned a king simply on the basis of market share in a neonatal market sector. The shakeout Siebel predicts in his bailiwick will pale beside the one we will see in the optics arena. JDSU is sitting on a ton of cash as well as tax-loss carryforwards from the huge writeoffs. The key for me to whether this arena yields a gorilla game or a royalty game will be whether with the coming consolidation certain firms move to incorporate "smart" software into their chips so that we get closer to all-optical networks. And, of course, who comes up with cost-effective manufacturing processes. The situation is a little like the one Intel faced in the 70s. Progress, of course, is predicated as well on a pickup in demand and a solution that can solve the last-mile problem. A lot of people think this will be akin to waiting for a Godot who might turn out to be a no-show. But given the importance of communications systems, patience here might be happily rewarded. And, I'm still convinced, we should not rush to any judgment on the kind of game that will be played out in the space. It's very early days after an extremely tiresome time. Judith

To: EnricoPalazzo who wrote (48890)	11/14/2001 1:32:19 PM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

ardethan: To try again to be clear, I was just suggesting that if anyone here takes seriously Moore's latest post that "established" gorillas are sufficient for most portfolios for diversification and opportunity, the next area of discovery would seem to be what companies is he referring to in order to make that statement credible. How much diversity and how much opportunity do those companies represent. And I was suggesting we discuss what list of companies might represent a consensus or a majority view on this thread where such discussion would seem appropriate. Very much appreciate your comments as a step in that direction. Perhaps the consensus on Qualcomm was reached before you started posting here, and I was reflecting that. At the time the consensus seemed strong. The only non consensus seemed to be the area in which Qualcomm was a gorilla, and there is was narrowed down to CDMA as apposed to "mobile wireless". Also that was at a time when voice was key. Now the situation is different in that mobile wireless data is a potential tornado that has not happened, so Qualcomm is not yet a gorilla in that area, and Eric L has raised questions about WCDMA aka UMTS where the Q has essential IPR and will be paid the same royalties as with other CDMA. The question is the degree of control. Suggest on this, it is too early to judge, but as you point out and a Thomas suggested, the best approach to any gorilla may well be to examine carefully the areas where it has a high degree of gorillaness and those less so, then perhaps judge its overall gorillaness in that light. Thanks to Eric L, Thomas, and Judith for their ideas on this. BTW I personally find Qualcomm the only "sure thing" (just joking of course) among the young "existing" gorillas. Best. Cha2 PS And Judith, perhaps since JDSU was the king in my game I have always considered it a king. <G> Whether JDSU will emerge again like Phoenix is an interesting speculation. Much appreciate your insights. PPS Though if Moore's post which Paul posted here is to be taken literally, JDSU is part of the diversification and opportunity portfolio if a gorilla, and not if a king.