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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (48894)	11/14/2001 2:37:24 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Not a gamer, so please take these comments with a barrel of salt. The total lack of architectural control of WCDMA is the distinguishing factor and that becomes increasingly evident to me. Be that as it may be, Qualcomm's IPR platform is a significant asset, and the cdmaOne/cdma2000 market is also a significant mass market within the much larger wireless market. A significant IPR portfolio that cannot be avoided seems sufficiently analogous to architectural control to render it a functional equivalent. Ask Nokia. Without a license, its plans to become dominant in 3G infra were dreams. If every user of the architecture is required to go through an IPR toll-gate, then there is control over the architecture, though it may not be absolute control over every detail. It seems that if a company has enough control to act as an arbiter of who can use the architecture, then it has established control over it. Granted, profits that a toll-gate owner may derive from its control may be limited because it does not necessarily profit from sales, manufacturing, etc. In Q's case, however, it is a leading manufacturer and seller of CDMA equipment, and is likely to establish a significant if not preeminent role in 3G CDMA. Until that happens, however, it seems presumptuous to afford it gorilla status. A teenage chimp that has a good chance of becoming a 3G gorilla.

To: Eric L who wrote (48894)	11/14/2001 5:09:12 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

>> The total lack of architectural control of WCDMA is the distinguishing factor and that becomes increasingly evident to me. The value of architectural control is in keeping Monkeys from gaining market share. Intel has done this on several occasions (as with mmx) to keep AMD in check. But since qcom has patents on the cornerstone of wcdma - the air interface - I don't see their lack of control over rest of the system as a weakness. Their market share in wcdma is guaranteed by their patents and by the laws of physics. jmho, uf

To: Eric L who wrote (48894)	11/14/2001 5:18:31 PM
From: paul_philp	Respond to of 54805

As for INTC, I personally still maintain that if it is not a gorilla then there is no gorilla game. I am a former but reformed member of the Intel is not a real gorilla. Duh! What was I thinking. AMD is a monkey. OK a largish monkey. Still AMD has no real power. Intel is about to leverage their gorilla power into several new markets. I now see the error in my way. If Intel is not a Gorilla then the term does not distinguish anything of import. I am still unsure about Qualcomm though. (Insert --Mb standard response here.) Paul

To: Eric L who wrote (48894)	11/14/2001 6:21:41 PM
From: techreports	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

... so anyway MY list of established gorillas is: - MSFT - INTC - CSCO - ORCL - SEBL - ITWO - QCOM [67% of my current all-tech equities portfolio] ... and possibly - SAP ... with maybe some gorilla genes in BEAS? I guess the opinion about Bea is still in question, although some are very confident that beas has won. I need to learn more about the whole AppServer industry before I make an opinion. Some feel that Bea will eventually move into the SCM industry and knock ITWO out. The AppServer may provide some CRM features, but probably won't offer the entire feature set Siebel offers, so SEBL investors shouldn't be too worried. also, brcd should be added as a possible gorilla. I think SoIP will happen so until I know how Brocade plans to keep it's lead if the market moves towards SoIP then I wouldn't invest. here's a post that talks about brocade and their software boards.fool.com checkpoint is another possible gorilla..last i looked, the company had amazing margins...veritas is another possible gorilla. There's GMST...ARMHY is another (pretty impressive value chain).. I think ebay has created an impressive network effect..others feel jnpr could become the gorilla in IP routing.. we shouldn't forget rmbs. i don't think this game is entirely over. what happens when dram supply and demand are equal and ddr costs about the same as rdram (4i bank)? Intel has said that if rdram ever becomes reasonable in price compared to ddr/sdram then they'd be more interested in rdram..