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To: The Freep who wrote (21191)	11/14/2001 3:15:05 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

amat will cough up a hairball IMO

To: The Freep who wrote (21191)	11/14/2001 3:40:14 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

OT Interesting, everyone claiming that the Taliban has fallen here... Unfortunately, I don't see it that way... It would have been MUCH better for us to have another month (or at least a week or two) of battling in those cities...in order to inflict more casulties on Taliban... Of course, there are some defections...but to me it seems they are withdrawing to fight the gorilla war in the hills (their strength) and they managed to retain most of their troops to do it; the quick withdrawal was strategic, and made sense. No way would they ever hold those cities....the fact that so many of their troops are still in tact make it very, very difficult to go up into the caves, etc... Maybe some of the local tribal leaders can be of great help...dunno... I would have preferred to deplete their troops further in city fighting....oh well, let's hope for the best...

To: The Freep who wrote (21191)	11/14/2001 4:06:50 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

We gapped to 1710, and closed at 1703...so -7 on the day... We saw this stuff before this year, and it was right before tops.. Not saying this is any kind of top, but with a +21 and -7 the last 2 day, net +14....not humungous buying here...and that there is, may just be shorts covering... Oracle missed (software). NTAP lowered forward guidance (storage). If AMAT (chip equipment) guides lower, is the market going to recognize reality? Sooner or later, these warnings will sink in, and we will get at least a correction. I got a 33% bet that today's the day... Oh, best of all, bearish engulfing on MSFT I think...some individual stock charts really showing strain/turning, while indices hold up.....option ex/games going on? Maybe Intel bought to support indices today?

To: The Freep who wrote (21191)	11/14/2001 10:23:29 PM
From: The Freep	Respond to of 209892

Just now getting back to look at things, and trying to figure out, wave wise, where the Naz might be. . . IF this was the "top" today, then I can see we've done a wave down, followed by an ABC back up, and could now be starting the next wave down. If we gap down tomorrow, that would imply that we're about to do a C or 3 down, I would think. Still, after that first move down, there sure was no followthrough. Will the AMAT reaction be enough to start a genuine move? Or will it, like every other piece of bad news recently be bought after an initial selloff? I guess I'll be watching today's lows to see if they hold. Barring a weird analyst upgrade of the semis tomorrow, I think the Soxx is gonna wipe out its low early on. I also note the SMH has a gap to fill just a hair over 42 (after bonking its head on the 200 ma today). But from a wave POV, I have absolutely no idea what that chart is telling me. g/ng Finally, index options expire tomorrow, which always causes some fun, and we get jobless claims at 8:30 am and the Philly Cream Cheese Fed report at noon. Then we've got war news (aid workers freed! Kandahar. . . doing something!!!), and who knows what else. Seems easy to read to me, but I'll let Allan, mm, and shack tell me what's going on. the freep