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To: Shack who wrote (21200)	11/14/2001 4:02:48 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 209892

Oh yeah, no home run hitting yet....I'll cover half on good down... That close left me with a half-pregnant feeling.....could go either way....we are no so far above over 1580 that it can't be considered tape-painting, IMO...

To: Shack who wrote (21200)	11/17/2001 9:52:35 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

As on most Saturday morning's, I end up thinking about the really big picture while the boy sleeps late. We missed a helluva buying op'ty in September. This is not hindsight -- we should have seen it. I was just looking at some long-term charts and we see the S&P and the XMI testing their channels out of 1982. That sort of test is a rare event and we should have been buying it. We had not been on that line since 1994. This will not happen again chez moi. That's gone now. There are three things that are vital to me right here: 1) Can this be cycle wave b or even something more bullish (i.e., we've done a 4 and are headed to new highs in the S&P -- this I doubt oh so much). 2) Did this freaking bull start in 1974, 1980, or 1982 -- there are good Elliott cases for the 3 alternatives. It makes an enormous difference, obviously, since we should know whether we are correcting within this bull market since that period, or correcting on a higher degree. For example, just say that it did begin in 1982, well, then all we can see is a wave 2 (1987) and now a wave 4. 3) Was the Sep low just an exaggeration of the move that was unfolding anyway. Was it just an extended B (down) and we are getting the C (up) that many of us thought we would get before the events of Sep 11? [Back in August, the map I was working with said we'd get a C up before the next down leg. I also thought we'd get that C up during Sep/Oct. Perhaps we are getting it and we're being headfaked by the depth of the Sep low.] Last night I mentioned that there are few experienced bears around these days. I came across this quote from RN Elliott where he ponders the opposite problem back in the early eighties when he's predicting a great bull run: ..........This bull market should be the first "buy-and-hold" market ..........since the 1960s. The experience of the last 16 years [bear market] ..........has turned us all into traders, and it's a habit that will have to be abandoned.