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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (13329)	11/14/2001 4:12:53 PM
From: Dale Baker	Respond to of 78520

MAXF proved (to me at least) that it is an absolute gem worth holding for some time to see if they can blossom into a serious small cap stock. I have a few trading shares but most are in my IRA where they can rest comfortably. WCG was my other star today, finally getting some momentum on the way back to respectability too.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (13329)	11/15/2001 1:03:09 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78520

Oops- stocks hitting new highs that I don't own: Documenting some notes for myself: Summarizing likely reasons I missed these: finance.yahoo.com AK, IKN, MIKE, URBN, WFMI : Too quick to take profit. AK sold just before buyout offer was made; IKN still below book value. WFMI still looks absolutely & relatively expensive to me - I stand by my sell decision 7-10 points ago. MIKE now maybe 30 points higher from where I (wrongly??) figured it was fully valued. ADM, BMS, LE, CKR, JAKK APOG: would not step up for them when they came off lows. Too anxious to get absolute low ---> missed larger move. BNE, STK WLHN: I've missed each of these stocks at lows now about 5 times over the past 25 years. My FUD keeps me out - no confidence that these companies will come back -- they always have though. (Overlooked WLHN (now 19) at lows; okay entry point could've again been 10 as in past years.) JNJ, LE, SLM: All quality companies. Just FUD - I could not step in when they were at lows. PII, LOW, SLM, GTK JNJ: wrong analysis. PLL wrongly figured new motorcycle costs would hold stock down. LOW - wrongly figured HD would either cream company or keep LOW stock low. SLM: believed media that gov't might end support; instead I should have followed professional value investors who I saw were buying. Also GTK - could have bought after they cleaned up their management issues - business franchise was still intact. JNJ - one of the finest companies that continually increases earnings for about 100 years? - concern that it was overpriced at this year's lows was unwarranted) ADM, GAP, TUES, TCO: missed focal point: For ADM focused wrongly on self-serving (?) management instead of the dominant business. For GAP wrong focus on lousy,small stores instead of potential for the stock to recover. For Taubman (TCO) too focused on management- should have just gone with an exploratory position when div. at about 10%. For TUES, too focused on my position in competitor BLI to buy TUE at lows. FO ROAD APOG: could not see value to price - even after companies mentioned here and/or on Buffettology thread. APOG: Reviewed APOG several times esp. around 6-8 (now 17)- relatively okay p/book but p/sales p/earnings did not look so attractive. FUD - stopped me from catching falling knife in '00 when APOG was selling at 3-5 and those ratios did look relatively attractive. SAFM WLHN - slipped by me. Reviewed it at lows - I got distracted or else decided to place money elsewhere. Summary: regarding buying at lows: Looks like I need to focus more on where the stock might be at full value, rather than how I might paperwork-lose if the stock declines to retest lows or break below them. And I might do better if I held less focus on a particular aspect of a company and more on its business model (e.g. odds favored ADM at lows (?) -- pretty hard for ADM to fail - I assume - even given its past/current management. Same maybe with GTK.