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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (5041)11/14/2001 7:40:59 PM
From: isopatch  Respond to of 33421
 
Hi Joan. One big difference from 1998

We're in a Bear Market across the board, not just in the energy sector. I think that accounts for why a lot of these stocks are trading almost as low as they were at $10 crude.

But we are definitely going to get an outstanding buying op between now and year end.

Isopatch



To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (5041)11/15/2001 8:56:22 PM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 33421
 
Hi Joan...What the Heck kind of Cartel is it, if it's non
functional
without the cooperation of producers who are not members of the CARTEL

I think we need to send over to OPEC a CARTEL Management
101 textbook -vbg-

And MEXICO has overtaken Saudi Arabia and is now the largest
foreign provider of crude to the US.

I'm amazed at some of the OPEC member dialogue...

--------------

OPEC Secretary-General Ali Rodriguez said on Thursday there was no floor
under oil prices if producers outside the cartel
did not pitch in with
significant output cuts. After two years of relatively high prices Rodriguez
said OPEC could weather a short period of low prices because of billions of
dollars of foreign currency reserves built up by member states. "We will
suffer the consequences of this decision, we have no floor to prices," he
said.

Norway's Oil and Energy Minister, under pressure from OPEC to rein in
production and boost prices, said on Thursday Oslo would be willing to cut
oil output if needed to prevent an oil price crash. "If the situation
demands it Norway will of course take its part of responsibility to
stabilise oil prices," Einar Steensnaes told NRK public radio, stopping
short of making any clear promises. He noted that Norway last trimmed its
3.1 million barrels per day output for two years from 1998 only after prices
slumped to 10 dollars a barrel
. "Now they're just below 20 dollars a barrel.
But we want to be ahead of a uncontrolled price crash for oil and we will of
course work to prevent that," he said. He did not say at what price level
for oil Norway might act.

Norwegian oil and energy minister Einar Steensnaes said on Thursday that he
would make a decision about whether to curb oil production next week amid
rising pressure from OPEC. "We are going to make an evaluation and a
possible decision next week," Steensnaes told Reuters. He said non-OPEC
Norway, the world's third biggest exporter after Saudi Arabia and Russia,
would depend on commitment from OPEC and other independent producers for
possible output cuts. "Our decision will be dependent on that we get
positive signals from OPEC and other nations outside of OPEC that they will
participate in such measures," he said. He said Oslo would also take into
account that higher oil prices could deepen an international economic
slowdown. "It is clear that an economic recession as we see now will be
affected by the oil price ... an economic recovery will be stimulated by
lower oil prices," he said. He confirmed that he would speak to Saudi
Arabia's Ali al-Naimi on the telephone later on Thursday and that Mexico's
Ernesto Martens would come to Norway for meetings on November 20. Steensnaes
said earlier on Thursday that Norway will act to prevent a price crash but
says that prices are almost double the $10 a barrel that triggered its last
production cutbacks in 1998.

Mexico's Oil Minister Ernesto Martens will visit his Norwegian counterpart
Einar Steensnaes in Norway next week with OPEC piling pressure on the two
independent producers to cut output and bolster prices. Martens "will be
coming Monday or Tuesday but it's not fixed yet," Norwegian oil and energy
ministry spokeswoman Sissel Edvardsen told Reuters on Thursday. Mexico said
on Wednesday it would cut its oil exports by up to 100,000 barrels per day
(bpd) as of Jan. 1.

Mexico said on Wednesday it would cut its oil exports by up to 100,000
barrels per day (bpd) as of Jan. 1, in concert with across-the-board cuts by
cartel OPEC aimed at shoring up sagging crude prices. OPEC said earlier on
Wednesday it would cut 1.5 million bpd, or six percent of the cartel's
output, as of Jan. 1 to coax oil prices back from two-year lows -- but only
if non-OPEC producers throw in another 500,000 bpd in reductions. "For its
part, the Mexican government has decided, in a sovereign and independent
manner, that as long as OPEC ratifies its commitment to cut and other
producing nations join the effort, it will adjust its export platform with a
reduction of up to 100,000 barrels a day," the energy ministry said in a
statement. Mexico, the world's No. 7 producer, exported an average 1.648
million bpd in September amid maintenance at its giant Cantarell offshore
oil field that has affected 70,000 bpd in output since August.

Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said on Thursday that OPEC will
never cut production unless Russia contributes significant supply curbs
to
support the cartel's efforts to stabilise the oil markets. Asked whether
OPEC's deferred 1.5 million barrels per day cut may still come into effect
from January 1 even without a deeper cut commitment from Russia, Naimi
replied: "Absolutely not, so we all lose." "Russia cut is miniscule and
disappointing and we don't take it seriously," Naimi told a news briefing.
"We've made a very, very reasonable request, Russia's position is extremely
unreasonable." "This is a way to advise all producers that this course of
action is disastrous and will lead us to a loss," he said.

Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said on Thursday he hoped his
country, under intense pressure from OPEC to cut exports and output to
support crude prices, would be able to work out a deal with the oil cartel.
OPEC has said it would only cut output from January next year if non-OPEC
states, particularly Russia,
joined in with reductions of their own. "I want
to say that this OPEC demand should be taken as a continuation of efforts to
work out an acceptable solution. I would like to note that working out this
solution has turned out to be more difficult than expected," he told
reporters. "But I think it will be found anyway," he said.

A senior Russian official said on Thursday his country was ready for more
talks with OPEC, which has put intense pressure on Moscow to help support
falling oil prices with production cuts. Russian Deputy Prime Minister
Viktor Khristenko, who coordinates the government's work with the country's
mostly privately-owned oil companies, saw a chance for talks with OPEC. "We
have not excluded and have never broken off the system of consultations with
OPEC member states about a stable oil market," Khristenko told reporters in
Azeri capital Baku. "Therefore we still have some time," he added. "The
conditional nature of this (OPEC) decision allows us first of all calmly to
consider in this period (to January) what OPEC decided," Khristenko added.

The head of Russia's second largest oil producer YUKOS said on Thursday it
was unreasonable for the country to cut oil output at OPEC's demand and his
firm would do it only on the order of the government. "If we are told (by
the government) to cut our production, we will cut. But I will do everything
I can to prove that it is unreasonable," Mikhail Khodorkovsky told
journalists. He added that after cutting output Russia would lose the
economic growth it had achieved over the last two years.


Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zangeneh said Russia needs more time to
accept OPEC's proposal that OPEC and non-OPEC cooperate on an oil cut
totaling 2.0 million b/d. When told that Russian oil company Yukos head had
called Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' offer unacceptable, he
said: "Give them time." OPEC said at its meeting which ended late Wednesday
that it would cut output 1.5 million b/d from Jan. 1 but that the cut was
conditional on a collective 0.5 million b/d output cut from non-OPEC
producers. Asked if he would go to Russia to try to persuade the government,
or oil companies, to come on board, he said: "It depends on them." He added
that Iran didn't want lower crude oil prices

Mexico surpassed Saudi Arabia as the largest oil supplier to the U.S. market
in September
, as Saudi oil shipments fell 23 percent from the month before,
the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Mexico jumped
from second place in August, with the country's September oil shipments up
1.2 percent to 1.420 million bpd, based on preliminary numbers from
importing firms. Saudi Arabia came in second with oil exports totaling 1.404
million bpd. U.S. imports of Iraqi oil more than doubled in September to
1.274 million bpd, moving the country up to fourth place. U.S. crude imports
from Iraq were the highest on record and the first time the country's
monthly shipments to the United States topped 1 million bpd since before the
Gulf War more than a decade ago. Canada maintained its fourth place ranking
with oil shipments of 1.245 million bpd, up 1.6 percent from August.
Venezuela fell from third to fifth place, as the country's oil exports to
the U.S. market fell 9.6 percent to 1.213 million bpd. Total U.S. oil
imports were 9.427 million bpd in September, down 3.7 percent from 9.092
million bpd the month before.

U.S. imports of Iraqi crude oil reached a monthly record high of 1.274
million barrels per day (bpd) in September, the U.S. Energy Department's
analytical arm said on Wednesday. It was also the first time Iraq's monthly
oil shipments to the U.S. market topped 1 million bpd since the Gulf War
more than a decade ago, based on preliminary company import data for
September compiled by the department's Energy Information Administration.
U.S. monthly imports of Iraqi oil last exceeded 1 million barrels bpd in
July 1990, when shipments reached 1.120 million bpd. Iraq invaded Kuwait
that following August and U.S. imports of Iraq oil were suspended until
December 1996.

Indonesia said on Thursday its non-oil exports are likely to fall by 10
percent to $43 billion in 2001 from $47.8 billion in 2000 due to severe
global economic slowdown. "Until September, our non-oil and gas exports
reached only $33.4 billion, and the trend since September is declining,"
Trade and Industry Minister Rini Soewandi told a seminar. Soewandi said
September exports stood at $3.36 billion, the lowest in 2001 due to attacks
on the United States, Indonesia's main non-oil and gas exports destination.
Before the attacks, Indonesia's exports were predicted at $45 billion,
Soewandi said.