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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian REITS, Trusts & Dividend Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (1932)	11/15/2001 12:04:32 AM
From: bill	Respond to of 11633

Yes, of course, you are right. If the trusts you are interested in paid good dividends before the rise in O&G, then they have downside protection. Also, in the longer term, there's nowhere to go but up. The problem is thatin the longer term, we'll all be dead. I guess I'd be looking for an entry point. I'm assuming that you are not in the coal trusts so picking a good entry point is important. After my earlier posting, I heard an interview on TV in which the interviewee said there could be a collapse in oil prices if Russia and Mexico keep pumping oil. He mentioned nine dollar oil. Yes, Saudi could sell oil at nine dollars and still make six bucks a barrel but they're already in serious trouble economically. They want the price over twenty because they need theprice over twenty. They are in a difficult situation and a low oil price could topple the royal family and destabalize the region. They're desperate to hang onto market share. I'm afraid that oil is as much about politics as it is about money--maybe even more so. As I mentioned there are built in inflexabilities--infrastructure, forward contracts, etc. Those should create a bottom for coal but given the tough time that coal producers have had for many years, I wonder how well they'd do in an environment of collapsing O&G prices and collapsing demand. There must be some level below which demand cannot fall. You can shut down factories and malls but houses need heat and light. I just don't know what that figure is or its significance to price. I don't want to sound like doom and gloom (as a matter of fact I think I'll go make a pot of tea and have a slice of pumpkin pie to cheer myself up)but what I see, for the moment, is tremendously instability on a larger scale than we've not seen since Glasnost and Pierestrokia and the collapse of the Soviet Union. These large events can have tremendous consequences.I was in Finland shortly after the collapseofthe USSR and prices for everything had dropped dramatically because, virtually overnight, Finland had lost half of its export market. Of course, the war in Afghanistan may come to a quick close, there may be some minor realignment and everything may go back, more or less,financially, to pre Sept.11. Then the economy will boom, there'll be a shortage of O&G. Coal will be king. And I'll retire and live off the avails.